{"id":149060,"date":"2024-03-21T06:29:23","date_gmt":"2024-03-21T05:29:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/149060\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T02:44:08","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:44:08","slug":"the-economic-outlook-for-1991-and-1992-business-cycle-passes-trough-without-recession","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/149060\/","title":{"rendered":"The Economic Outlook for 1991 and 1992: Business Cycle Passes Trough Without Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-149060","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Until early 1991 demand, output and employment in Austria rose virtually unabated. Lively demand from Germany stimulated exports and manufacturing output, and consumer spending was little affected by the Gulf crisis and recession tendencies abroad. According to preliminary figures real GDP rose 4.6 percent in 1990. Nevertheless, early signs of a slowdown of activity have shown up in recent months. Foreign markets other than Germany are stagnating, industrial firms receive fewer orders and have turned more cautious in hiring new personnel. Pent-up demand for additional production capacity and for consumer durables has largely been satisfied by now. Thus, even apart from the slowdown abroad, domestic demand will come down from recent boom levels towards more sustainable rates of growth. Real GDP is projected to increase by 3 percent in 1991 and by 3\u00bc percent in 1992. Multiplier effects of the strong expansion of income and employment, the brighter international outlook after the Gulf war and continued demand stimulus from Germany should all prevent the economy from slipping into a recession.","onlinedate":"1991-04-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19910401","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":306624,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"64","monthly_report_pages":"147-161","monthly_report_pages_sort":"147","issue":"4","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[],"persons_data":"[]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>WIFO<\\\/span> (1991). <span>Prognose f\u00fcr 1991 und 1992. Konjunktur \u00fcberwindet Talsohle ohne Rezession<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>64<\\\/em>(4), 147-161. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/8009\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/8009<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>WIFO<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Prognose f\u00fcr 1991 und 1992. Konjunktur \u00fcberwindet Talsohle ohne Rezession<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1991 Apr;64(4):147-161.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{3d4a63eeb82a4b78b5f8a0bd27ede101,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Prognose f{\\\\\\\"u}r 1991 und 1992. Konjunktur {\\\\\\\"u}berwindet Talsohle ohne Rezession\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Seit der letzten Konjunkturprognose vom Dezember haben sich wichtige Rahmenbedingungen ge{\\\\\\\"a}ndert. Der rasche Erfolg der Alliierten im Golfkrieg hat die Aussichten auf anhaltend niedrige und stabile Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise entscheidend verbessert. F{\\\\\\\"u}r die Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}nder ist damit eine Hypothek weggefallen, die einerseits den Spielraum f{\\\\\\\"u}r Zinssenkungen einengte, andererseits die Erwartungen von Konsumenten und Investoren tr{\\\\\\\"u}bte. Gleichzeitig sehen sich aber die {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlichen Haushalte durch den Konjunkturr{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang, die Kriegskosten und die Finanzierung der ehemaligen Planwirtschaften in Osteuropa gr{\\\\\\\"o}{\\\\ss}eren Belastungen ausgesetzt. Sie bedingen in Deutschland Steuererh{\\\\\\\"o}hungen, die das Wirtschaftswachstum mittelbar auch in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich d{\\\\\\\"a}mpfen k{\\\\\\\"o}nnten.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Prognose f{\\\\\\\"u}r 1991 und 1992. Konjunktur {\\\\\\\"u}berwindet Talsohle ohne Rezession; The Economic Outlook for 1991 and 1992: Business Cycle Passes Trough Without Recession\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"WIFO\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1991\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = apr,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"64\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"147--161\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Prognose f\u00fcr 1991 und 1992. Konjunktur \u00fcberwindet Talsohle ohne Rezession<\\\/p><p>AU  - WIFO, null<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1991\\\/4<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1991\\\/4<\\\/p><p>N2  - Seit der letzten Konjunkturprognose vom Dezember haben sich wichtige Rahmenbedingungen ge\u00e4ndert. Der rasche Erfolg der Alliierten im Golfkrieg hat die Aussichten auf anhaltend niedrige und stabile Roh\u00f6lpreise entscheidend verbessert. F\u00fcr die Industriel\u00e4nder ist damit eine Hypothek weggefallen, die einerseits den Spielraum f\u00fcr Zinssenkungen einengte, andererseits die Erwartungen von Konsumenten und Investoren tr\u00fcbte. Gleichzeitig sehen sich aber die \u00f6ffentlichen Haushalte durch den Konjunkturr\u00fcckgang, die Kriegskosten und die Finanzierung der ehemaligen Planwirtschaften in Osteuropa gr\u00f6\u00dferen Belastungen ausgesetzt. Sie bedingen in Deutschland Steuererh\u00f6hungen, die das Wirtschaftswachstum mittelbar auch in \u00d6sterreich d\u00e4mpfen k\u00f6nnten.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Seit der letzten Konjunkturprognose vom Dezember haben sich wichtige Rahmenbedingungen ge\u00e4ndert. Der rasche Erfolg der Alliierten im Golfkrieg hat die Aussichten auf anhaltend niedrige und stabile Roh\u00f6lpreise entscheidend verbessert. F\u00fcr die Industriel\u00e4nder ist damit eine Hypothek weggefallen, die einerseits den Spielraum f\u00fcr Zinssenkungen einengte, andererseits die Erwartungen von Konsumenten und Investoren tr\u00fcbte. Gleichzeitig sehen sich aber die \u00f6ffentlichen Haushalte durch den Konjunkturr\u00fcckgang, die Kriegskosten und die Finanzierung der ehemaligen Planwirtschaften in Osteuropa gr\u00f6\u00dferen Belastungen ausgesetzt. Sie bedingen in Deutschland Steuererh\u00f6hungen, die das Wirtschaftswachstum mittelbar auch in \u00d6sterreich d\u00e4mpfen k\u00f6nnten.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Prognose f\u00fcr 1991 und 1992. Konjunktur \u00fcberwindet Talsohle ohne Rezession; The Economic Outlook for 1991 and 1992: Business Cycle Passes Trough Without Recession<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 64<\\\/p><p>SP  - 147<\\\/p><p>EP  - 161<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Economic Outlook for 1991 and 1992: Business Cycle Passes Trough Without Recession - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/149060\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Economic Outlook for 1991 and 1992: Business Cycle Passes Trough Without Recession\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/149060\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T01:44:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/149060\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/149060\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Economic Outlook for 1991 and 1992: Business Cycle Passes Trough Without Recession - 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