{"id":149024,"date":"2024-03-21T06:29:09","date_gmt":"2024-03-21T05:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/149024\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T02:43:46","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:43:46","slug":"economic-outlook-for-1990-and-1991-cyclical-boom-accompanied-by-rising-current-account-surplus","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/149024\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-149024","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The short-term outlook for the Austrian economy is very favourable. Demand and output are expected to grow by more than 4 percent annual rate over the next 18 months, faster than productive capacities. Strains typically associated with a sustained boom period are however unlikely to emerge. Inflation will accelerate only little, and the current account will move into surplus for the whole of 1990, improving further in 1991. The number of jobs being created is remarkably high and yet, unemployment will continue to rise. From the previous forecast last March growth of real GDP is revised upwards by 1 percentage point each \u2013 to 4\u00bd percent for 1990 and 4 percent for 1991. The revision starts from a higher base as activity proved surprisingly buoyant in the first quarter of 1990 moving to a year-to-year increase by more than 5 percent. A new and self-sustained upswing has come under way, in which manufacturing industry plays a key role. Output will rise by about 8 percent this year and firms envisage an increase of their investment expenditure by no less than 30 percent. The optimism of entrepreneurs is matched by that of consumers. Purchases of durables went up by 15 percent in the first quarter and total consumption will rise by 4\u00bc percent in 1990, the highest rate in seven years. Despite the rebound in domestic demand the current account will improve by some AS 5 billion both this year and next, yielding a surplus in the order of AS 10 billion in 1991. The positive trend is brought about by favourable terms of trade and steadily rising net receipts from foreign travel.","onlinedate":"1990-07-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19900701","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":306514,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"63","monthly_report_pages":"396-410","monthly_report_pages_sort":"396","issue":"7","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[],"persons_data":"[]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>WIFO<\\\/span> (1990). <span>Prognose f\u00fcr 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanz\u00fcberschu\u00df<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>63<\\\/em>(7), 396-410. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/7997\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/7997<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>WIFO<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Prognose f\u00fcr 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanz\u00fcberschu\u00df<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1990 Jul;63(7):396-410.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{1ff6f0cd95b749db8fd12ecc55433c0f,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Prognose f{\\\\\\\"u}r 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanz{\\\\\\\"u}berschu{\\\\ss}\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"{\\\\\\\"O}sterreichs Wirtschaft bieten sich in den n{\\\\\\\"a}chsten 18 Monaten sehr g{\\\\\\\"u}nstige Konjunkturaussichten. Nachfrage und Produktion werden mit einer Jahresrate von mehr als 4\\\\% wachsen, die Kapazit{\\\\\\\"a}ten somit noch besser ausgelastet sein. Spannungen, die nach Jahren anhaltender Hochkonjunktur im allgemeinen auftreten, zeichnen sich dennoch kaum ab. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich nur wenig beschleunigen, die Leistungsbilanz sogar zu wachsenden {\\\\\\\"U}bersch{\\\\\\\"u}ssen tendieren. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird freilich noch steigen, obwohl {\\\\\\\"u}berraschend viele neue Arbeitspl{\\\\\\\"a}tze geschaffen werden.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Prognose f{\\\\\\\"u}r 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanz{\\\\\\\"u}berschu{\\\\ss}; Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"WIFO\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1990\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jul,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"63\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"396--410\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Prognose f\u00fcr 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanz\u00fcberschu\u00df<\\\/p><p>AU  - WIFO, null<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1990\\\/7<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1990\\\/7<\\\/p><p>N2  - \u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft bieten sich in den n\u00e4chsten 18 Monaten sehr g\u00fcnstige Konjunkturaussichten. Nachfrage und Produktion werden mit einer Jahresrate von mehr als 4% wachsen, die Kapazit\u00e4ten somit noch besser ausgelastet sein. Spannungen, die nach Jahren anhaltender Hochkonjunktur im allgemeinen auftreten, zeichnen sich dennoch kaum ab. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich nur wenig beschleunigen, die Leistungsbilanz sogar zu wachsenden \u00dcbersch\u00fcssen tendieren. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird freilich noch steigen, obwohl \u00fcberraschend viele neue Arbeitspl\u00e4tze geschaffen werden.<\\\/p><p>AB  - \u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft bieten sich in den n\u00e4chsten 18 Monaten sehr g\u00fcnstige Konjunkturaussichten. Nachfrage und Produktion werden mit einer Jahresrate von mehr als 4% wachsen, die Kapazit\u00e4ten somit noch besser ausgelastet sein. Spannungen, die nach Jahren anhaltender Hochkonjunktur im allgemeinen auftreten, zeichnen sich dennoch kaum ab. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich nur wenig beschleunigen, die Leistungsbilanz sogar zu wachsenden \u00dcbersch\u00fcssen tendieren. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird freilich noch steigen, obwohl \u00fcberraschend viele neue Arbeitspl\u00e4tze geschaffen werden.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Prognose f\u00fcr 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanz\u00fcberschu\u00df; Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 63<\\\/p><p>SP  - 396<\\\/p><p>EP  - 410<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/149024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/149024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T01:43:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/149024\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/149024\\\/\",\"name\":\"Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus - 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