{"id":124514,"date":"2024-01-23T09:07:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T08:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/124514\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T05:35:31","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T04:35:31","slug":"would-dsge-models-have-predicted-the-great-recession-in-austria","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/124514\/","title":{"rendered":"Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-124514","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis.","onlinedate":"2016-11-08 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20161101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"24","keywords":"[\"DSGE models\",\"business cycles\",\"forecasting\",\"open-economy macroeconomics\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":365158,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"530","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2016-11-08 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3917],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3917,\"personName\":\"Fritz Breuss\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Breuss, F.<\\\/span> (2016). <span>Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?<\\\/span> <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (530). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/59097\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/59097<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Breuss F<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?<\\\/span><\\\/span> <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2016 Nov;(530).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{8e6a559976c6486095978b6931be7830,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"DSGE models, business cycles, forecasting, open-economy macroeconomics, DSGE models, business cycles, forecasting, open-economy macroeconomics\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Fritz Breuss\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Would DSGE Models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2016\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = nov,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?<\\\/p><p>AU  - Breuss, Fritz<\\\/p><p>N1  - Would DSGE Models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2016\\\/11<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2016\\\/11<\\\/p><p>N2  - DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis.<\\\/p><p>AB  - DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis.<\\\/p><p>KW  - DSGE models<\\\/p><p>KW  - business cycles<\\\/p><p>KW  - forecasting<\\\/p><p>KW  - open-economy macroeconomics<\\\/p><p>KW  - DSGE models<\\\/p><p>KW  - business cycles<\\\/p><p>KW  - forecasting<\\\/p><p>KW  - open-economy macroeconomics<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria? 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