{"id":123804,"date":"2024-01-23T08:46:50","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T07:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/123804\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T05:28:54","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T04:28:54","slug":"update-der-mittelfristigen-prognose-der-oesterreichischen-wirtschaft-2016-bis-2020","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/","title":{"rendered":"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-123804","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Following a period of sluggish growth averaging \u00bd percent p.a. from 2012 to 2015, economic activity in Austria is expected to pick up over the medium term, averaging at a moderate pace of +1\u00bd percent p.a. between 2016 and 2020. Foreign trade, government consumption and investment spending will contribute less to economic growth than prior to the financial market crisis and the recession 2008-09. Growth of private consumption should pick up from 0.5 percent p.a. 2011-2015 to 1.4 percent p.a. over the forecast period, receiving stimulus from higher disposable income due to the tax reform 2015-16, and from additional demand due to refugee immigration. While the moderate GDP growth will allow employment to increase by 1.1 percent p.a. from 2016 to 2020, the creation of new jobs will not prevent unemployment from rising further until 2018, since labour supply, both domestic and from abroad (driven also by the inflow of refugees), will outpace demand. The rate of unemployment may reach almost 10 percent (national definition) by 2017 and change little thereafter. Inflationary pressure will remain moderate over the medium term, at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. The inflation rate will be thus higher than the average in the euro area, making for somewhat smaller real income gains in Austria. Given the projected cyclical profile and the assumptions on the economic policy settings, a balanced general government budget, whether in nominal (Maastricht definition) or structural terms, may be difficult to achieve over the forecast horizon.","onlinedate":"2016-04-28 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20160401","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":362745,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"89","monthly_report_pages":"219-225","monthly_report_pages_sort":"219","issue":"4","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2016-04-28 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530,3641],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T04:28:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/\",\"name\":\"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020 - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-23T07:46:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-07T04:28:54+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat\",\"https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020 - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2024-11-07T04:28:54+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/","name":"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020 - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-01-23T07:46:50+00:00","dateModified":"2024-11-07T04:28:54+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123804\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Update of the Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy from 2016 to 2020"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/123804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/123804\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":362735,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/123804\/revisions\/362735"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/3641"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/3530"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research_group\/3500"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/44312"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}