{"id":123394,"date":"2024-01-23T08:31:03","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T07:31:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/123394\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T05:25:13","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T04:25:13","slug":"long-term-forecasts-of-age-specific-labour-market-participation-rates-with-functional-data-models","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123394\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-123394","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.","onlinedate":"2016-01-21 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20160101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"41","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":361418,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"510","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2016-01-21 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3899,14967,14969],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3899,\"personName\":\"Thomas Url\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":14967,\"personName\":\"Rob J. Hyndman\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":14969,\"personName\":\"Alexander Dokumentov\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[49624],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Url, T.<\\\/span>, Hyndman, R. J., &amp; Dokumentov, A. (2016). <span>Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (510). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/58643\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/58643<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Url T<\\\/span>, Hyndman RJ, Dokumentov A. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2016 Jan;(510).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{e9499feb5f8946bb87ef53be9ef102d2,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"forecast, labour supply, age-profile, smoothing\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Thomas Url and Hyndman, \\\\{Rob J.\\\\} and Alexander Dokumentov\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2016\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models<\\\/p><p>AU  - Url, Thomas<\\\/p><p>AU  - Hyndman, Rob J.<\\\/p><p>AU  - Dokumentov, Alexander<\\\/p><p>N1  - Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2016\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2016\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Many countries have implemented social programmes providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programmes often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programmes. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. 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