{"id":123020,"date":"2024-01-23T08:16:37","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T07:16:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/123020\/"},"modified":"2025-10-22T22:06:01","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T20:06:01","slug":"determining-the-asymmetric-effects-of-oil-price-changes-on-macroeconomic-variables-a-case-study-of-turkey","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/","title":{"rendered":"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-123020","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper aims to investigate the effects of unanticipated oil price changes on the Turkish economy using quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and monthly consumer price index (CPI) and real exchange rate (RER) for the period 2002\u20132013. While the bulk of previous studies have employed the standard methodology without true data generating process knowledge, in this study asymmetric vector autoregressive methodology proposed by Kilian and Vigfusson (Quant Econ 2(3): 419-453, 2011) is used to analyse the asymmetric impact of oil prices on macroeconomic aggregates. This method allows the researcher to investigate the asymmetric effects of innovations in oil prices on variables without knowing data generating process is linear or not. The empirical findings are that the oil prices changes have asymmetric effects on CPI and RER at one standard deviation shock in different periods unlike GDP. These asymmetric effects are also statistically significant at 10 percent significance level. Specifically, when oil price increases, CPI and RER increases but GDP decreases in the long term.","onlinedate":"2015-11-01 01:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20151101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":null,"zip":null,"link":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/10663","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"42","monthly_report_pages":"737-746","monthly_report_pages_sort":"737","issue":"4","journal":"Empirica","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[83083],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[14365,14369,14433],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":14365,\"personName\":\"Yeliz Yalcin\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":14369,\"personName\":\"Cengiz Arikan\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":14433,\"personName\":\"Furkan Emirmahmutoglu\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-22T20:06:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/\",\"name\":\"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-23T07:16:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-22T20:06:01+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat\",\"https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2025-10-22T20:06:01+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/","name":"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-01-23T07:16:37+00:00","dateModified":"2025-10-22T20:06:01+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/123020\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/123020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/123020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":432481,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/123020\/revisions\/432481"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/14433"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/14369"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/14365"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research_group\/3500"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/83083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}