{"id":122944,"date":"2024-01-23T08:09:39","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T07:09:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/122944\/"},"modified":"2024-11-19T10:27:01","modified_gmt":"2024-11-19T09:27:01","slug":"the-tax-reform-2015-16-macroeconomic-effects-up-to-2019","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/122944\/","title":{"rendered":"The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-122944","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The 2015-16 tax reform foresees tax cuts of \u20ac 3.9 billion in 2016, increasing to \u20ac 5.2 billion p.a. from 2017 onwards. Provided that the planned measures to fund the tax relief (2016 \u20ac 3.6 billion, 2017 \u20ac 4.4 billion, from 2018 \u20ac 4.5 billion p.a.) are implemented in a timely and complete manner (scenario 1: \"government\" scenario), real disposable income of private households would increase by 1 percent (compared with a baseline scenario without tax reform; numbers are deviations from baseline in percent, cumulated up to 2019). As a consequence, private consumption will increase by 0.75 percent, real GDP will increase by \u00bc percent and consumer prices by \u00bd percent. Under these assumptions the tax reform will not have lasting negative effects on the government balance. The chosen policy-mix would shift demand from public to private consumption and reduce the government-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Two alternative scenarios assume a delayed (scenario 2) or incomplete (scenario 3) implementation of cuts in public administration costs and subsidies, and measures to combat tax fraud. In these scenarios, disposable household income increases more and public consumption declines less than in scenario 1. This implies a slightly stronger increase in GDP (in comparison with scenario 1 up to +0.2 percentage points until 2019), but also a higher government deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratio (up to +1 percentage point in 2019).","onlinedate":"2015-12-03 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20151201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":417305,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"20","monthly_report_pages":"250-265","monthly_report_pages_sort":"250","issue":"22","journal":"WIFO Bulletin","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2015-12-03 12:00:00","types":[50590],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530,3641],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[41261],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Baumgartner, J.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span> (2015). <span>The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Bulletin<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>20<\\\/em>(22), 250-265. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/58374\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/58374<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Baumgartner J<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Bulletin<\\\/span>. 2015 Dec;20(22):250-265.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{ffb2c68f71f2489295b271bc801ff8af,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The 2015-16 tax reform foresees tax cuts of \u20ac 3.9 billion in 2016, increasing to \u20ac 5.2 billion p.a. from 2017 onwards. Provided that the planned measures to fund the tax relief (2016 \u20ac 3.6 billion, 2017 \u20ac 4.4 billion, from 2018 \u20ac 4.5 billion p.a.) are implemented in a timely and complete manner (scenario 1: {\\\"}government{\\\"} scenario), real disposable income of private households would increase by 1 percent (compared with a baseline scenario without tax reform; numbers are deviations from baseline in percent, cumulated up to 2019). As a consequence, private consumption will increase by 0.75 percent, real GDP will increase by \u00bc percent and consumer prices by \u00bd percent. Under these assumptions the tax reform will not have lasting negative effects on the government balance. The chosen policy-mix would shift demand from public to private consumption and reduce the government-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Two alternative scenarios assume a delayed (scenario 2) or incomplete (scenario 3) implementation of cuts in public administration costs and subsidies, and measures to combat tax fraud. In these scenarios, disposable household income increases more and public consumption declines less than in scenario 1. This implies a slightly stronger increase in GDP (in comparison with scenario 1 up to +0.2 percentage points until 2019), but also a higher government deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratio (up to +1 percentage point in 2019).\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Tax reform 2015-16, WIFO-Macromod, model simulations\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Josef Baumgartner and Serguei Kaniovski\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Tax Reform 2015-16: Macroeconomic Effects\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2015\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"20\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"250--265\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Bulletin\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019<\\\/p><p>AU  - Baumgartner, Josef<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>N1  - Tax Reform 2015-16: Macroeconomic Effects<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2015\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2015\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - The 2015-16 tax reform foresees tax cuts of \u20ac 3.9 billion in 2016, increasing to \u20ac 5.2 billion p.a. from 2017 onwards. Provided that the planned measures to fund the tax relief (2016 \u20ac 3.6 billion, 2017 \u20ac 4.4 billion, from 2018 \u20ac 4.5 billion p.a.) are implemented in a timely and complete manner (scenario 1: \\\"government\\\" scenario), real disposable income of private households would increase by 1 percent (compared with a baseline scenario without tax reform; numbers are deviations from baseline in percent, cumulated up to 2019). As a consequence, private consumption will increase by 0.75 percent, real GDP will increase by \u00bc percent and consumer prices by \u00bd percent. Under these assumptions the tax reform will not have lasting negative effects on the government balance. The chosen policy-mix would shift demand from public to private consumption and reduce the government-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Two alternative scenarios assume a delayed (scenario 2) or incomplete (scenario 3) implementation of cuts in public administration costs and subsidies, and measures to combat tax fraud. In these scenarios, disposable household income increases more and public consumption declines less than in scenario 1. This implies a slightly stronger increase in GDP (in comparison with scenario 1 up to +0.2 percentage points until 2019), but also a higher government deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratio (up to +1 percentage point in 2019).<\\\/p><p>AB  - The 2015-16 tax reform foresees tax cuts of \u20ac 3.9 billion in 2016, increasing to \u20ac 5.2 billion p.a. from 2017 onwards. Provided that the planned measures to fund the tax relief (2016 \u20ac 3.6 billion, 2017 \u20ac 4.4 billion, from 2018 \u20ac 4.5 billion p.a.) are implemented in a timely and complete manner (scenario 1: \\\"government\\\" scenario), real disposable income of private households would increase by 1 percent (compared with a baseline scenario without tax reform; numbers are deviations from baseline in percent, cumulated up to 2019). As a consequence, private consumption will increase by 0.75 percent, real GDP will increase by \u00bc percent and consumer prices by \u00bd percent. Under these assumptions the tax reform will not have lasting negative effects on the government balance. The chosen policy-mix would shift demand from public to private consumption and reduce the government-to-GDP ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Two alternative scenarios assume a delayed (scenario 2) or incomplete (scenario 3) implementation of cuts in public administration costs and subsidies, and measures to combat tax fraud. In these scenarios, disposable household income increases more and public consumption declines less than in scenario 1. This implies a slightly stronger increase in GDP (in comparison with scenario 1 up to +0.2 percentage points until 2019), but also a higher government deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratio (up to +1 percentage point in 2019).<\\\/p><p>KW  - Tax reform 2015-16<\\\/p><p>KW  -  WIFO-Macromod<\\\/p><p>KW  -  model simulations<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 20<\\\/p><p>SP  - 250<\\\/p><p>EP  - 265<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Bulletin<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Bulletin<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/122944\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/122944\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-19T09:27:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/122944\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/122944\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Tax Reform 2015-16 \u2013 Macroeconomic Effects up to 2019 - 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