{"id":120090,"date":"2024-01-22T22:51:12","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T21:51:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/120090\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T05:11:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T04:11:00","slug":"verschuldungs-und-entschuldungsprozesse-praegen-die-weltweiten-konjunkturaussichten-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2019-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/120090\/","title":{"rendered":"Debt Accumulation and Debt Reduction Shape the Global Business Outlook. Medium-term Forecast for the World Economy Until 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-120090","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The marked decline of oil prices gives some impetus to business activity in the euro area. However, medium-term prospects are dominated by lack of aggregate demand and very low inflation; moreover, the lacking possibility of currency de- or re-valuation, notably the under-valuation for Germany, is weighing on the growth outlook. Prospects for the USA are markedly more favourable since excess private debt was reduced rapidly via bankruptcies and by accepting generous government deficits after the financial market crisis. In China, both prosperity and indebtedness are rising quickly. In Japan, the investment-inhibiting unwinding of corporate debt will wear off in the years to come. Another financial market crisis is looming in Russia, despite the country's moderate degree of foreign indebtedness.","onlinedate":"2015-01-28 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20150101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Mittelfristige Prognose\",\"Weltwirtschaft\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":356400,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"88","monthly_report_pages":"39-50","monthly_report_pages_sort":"39","issue":"1","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2015-01-28 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3865],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3865,\"personName\":\"Stefan Schiman\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schiman, S.<\\\/span> (2015). <span>Verschuldungs- und Entschuldungsprozesse pr\u00e4gen die weltweiten Konjunkturaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2019<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>88<\\\/em>(1), 39-50. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/50922\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/50922<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schiman S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Verschuldungs- und Entschuldungsprozesse pr\u00e4gen die weltweiten Konjunkturaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2019<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2015 Jan;88(1):39-50.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{4fd5c09b84d94d89838929229904ee80,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Verschuldungs- und Entschuldungsprozesse pr{\\\\\\\"a}gen die weltweiten Konjunkturaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2019\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Der markante R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang der Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise st{\\\\\\\"a}rkt die Konjunktur im Euro-Raum etwas. Mittelfristig wird sie aber von Nachfragemangel und schwacher Preisentwicklung dominiert; auch das Fehlen von Auf- und Abwertungsm{\\\\\\\"o}glichkeiten, insbesondere die relative Unterbewertung f{\\\\\\\"u}r Deutschland, hemmt die Wachstumsaussichten. F{\\\\\\\"u}r die USA ist der Konjunkturausblick sehr g{\\\\\\\"u}nstig, da der Privatschulden{\\\\\\\"u}berhang dank rascher Insolvenzen und gro{\\\\ss}z{\\\\\\\"u}giger {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlicher Budgetdefizite nach der Finanzmarktkrise rasch abgebaut wurde. In China nimmt der Wohlstand stark zu, aber auch die Verschuldung. In Japan sollte der Entschuldungsprozess der Unternehmen in den n{\\\\\\\"a}chsten Jahren abgeschlossen sein. In Russland droht \u2013 trotz der m{\\\\\\\"a}{\\\\ss}igen Auslandsverschuldung \u2013 eine neue Finanzmarktkrise.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose, Weltwirtschaft, Mittelfristige Prognose, Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stefan Schiman\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose: Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2015\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"88\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"39--50\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Verschuldungs- und Entschuldungsprozesse pr\u00e4gen die weltweiten Konjunkturaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2019<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schiman, Stefan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose: Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2015\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2015\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Der markante R\u00fcckgang der Roh\u00f6lpreise st\u00e4rkt die Konjunktur im Euro-Raum etwas. Mittelfristig wird sie aber von Nachfragemangel und schwacher Preisentwicklung dominiert; auch das Fehlen von Auf- und Abwertungsm\u00f6glichkeiten, insbesondere die relative Unterbewertung f\u00fcr Deutschland, hemmt die Wachstumsaussichten. F\u00fcr die USA ist der Konjunkturausblick sehr g\u00fcnstig, da der Privatschulden\u00fcberhang dank rascher Insolvenzen und gro\u00dfz\u00fcgiger \u00f6ffentlicher Budgetdefizite nach der Finanzmarktkrise rasch abgebaut wurde. In China nimmt der Wohlstand stark zu, aber auch die Verschuldung. In Japan sollte der Entschuldungsprozess der Unternehmen in den n\u00e4chsten Jahren abgeschlossen sein. In Russland droht \u2013 trotz der m\u00e4\u00dfigen Auslandsverschuldung \u2013 eine neue Finanzmarktkrise.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Der markante R\u00fcckgang der Roh\u00f6lpreise st\u00e4rkt die Konjunktur im Euro-Raum etwas. Mittelfristig wird sie aber von Nachfragemangel und schwacher Preisentwicklung dominiert; auch das Fehlen von Auf- und Abwertungsm\u00f6glichkeiten, insbesondere die relative Unterbewertung f\u00fcr Deutschland, hemmt die Wachstumsaussichten. F\u00fcr die USA ist der Konjunkturausblick sehr g\u00fcnstig, da der Privatschulden\u00fcberhang dank rascher Insolvenzen und gro\u00dfz\u00fcgiger \u00f6ffentlicher Budgetdefizite nach der Finanzmarktkrise rasch abgebaut wurde. In China nimmt der Wohlstand stark zu, aber auch die Verschuldung. In Japan sollte der Entschuldungsprozess der Unternehmen in den n\u00e4chsten Jahren abgeschlossen sein. In Russland droht \u2013 trotz der m\u00e4\u00dfigen Auslandsverschuldung \u2013 eine neue Finanzmarktkrise.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Mittelfristige Prognose<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>KW  - Mittelfristige Prognose<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 88<\\\/p><p>SP  - 39<\\\/p><p>EP  - 50<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Debt Accumulation and Debt Reduction Shape the Global Business Outlook. 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