{"id":118958,"date":"2024-01-22T22:15:54","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T21:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/118958\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T05:00:52","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T04:00:52","slug":"subdued-economic-growth-high-unemployment-and-fiscal-consolidation-shaping-the-economic-outlook-medium-term-forecast-for-the-austrian-economy-until-2018","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/118958\/","title":{"rendered":"Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-118958","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"After the slump in economic growth between late 2012 and the middle of 2013, the Austrian economy is expected to follow a moderate upward trend, with GDP growth averaging 1.8 percent p.a. over the period 2014-2018. Private consumption in particular will remain subdued, as private households seem inclined to further increase their savings. While the gradual pace of expansion will lead to more jobs (2014-2018 +0.8 percent p.a.), unemployment is unlikely to decline significantly, given the parallel increase in both domestic and foreign labour supply. From a peak of 7.9 percent (as defined by the public employment service) in 2015, the unemployment rate is projected to decline only slightly to 7.7 percent by the forecast horizon. Inflationary pressure remains weak over the medium term, with headline inflation anticipated at an average 1.9 percent. A balanced general government budget (in structural terms as well as in accordance to the \"Maastricht\" definition) will not be achieved by the structural consolidation scenario underlying the forecast (\u20ac 2 billion as from 2014 and a further \u20ac 1 billion from 2015 onwards).","onlinedate":"2014-03-25 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20140301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Forecast Public finance Medium-term Austria\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":352324,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"19","monthly_report_pages":"21-34","monthly_report_pages_sort":"21","issue":"3","journal":"WIFO Bulletin","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2014-03-25 12:00:00","types":[50590],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530,3641,3737],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3737,\"personName\":\"Markus Leibrecht\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Baumgartner, J.<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Leibrecht, M.<\\\/span> (2014). <span>Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2018<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Bulletin<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>19<\\\/em>(3), 21-34. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/47181\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/47181<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Baumgartner J<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span><span>, Leibrecht M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2018<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Bulletin<\\\/span>. 2014 Mar;19(3):21-34.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{29a576a9d8fc45bc881fe1d14331290e,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2018\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"After the slump in economic growth between late 2012 and the middle of 2013, the Austrian economy is expected to follow a moderate upward trend, with GDP growth averaging 1.8 percent p.a. over the period 2014-2018. Private consumption in particular will remain subdued, as private households seem inclined to further increase their savings. While the gradual pace of expansion will lead to more jobs (2014-2018 +0.8 percent p.a.), unemployment is unlikely to decline significantly, given the parallel increase in both domestic and foreign labour supply. From a peak of 7.9 percent (as defined by the public employment service) in 2015, the unemployment rate is projected to decline only slightly to 7.7 percent by the forecast horizon. Inflationary pressure remains weak over the medium term, with headline inflation anticipated at an average 1.9 percent. A balanced general government budget (in structural terms as well as in accordance to the {\\\"}Maastricht{\\\"} definition) will not be achieved by the structural consolidation scenario underlying the forecast (\u20ac 2 billion as from 2014 and a further \u20ac 1 billion from 2015 onwards).\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Forecast Public finance Medium-term Austria, Forecast Public finance Medium-term Austria\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Josef Baumgartner and Serguei Kaniovski and Markus Leibrecht\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Medium-term Forecast Austria\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2014\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"19\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"21--34\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Bulletin\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. 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From a peak of 7.9 percent (as defined by the public employment service) in 2015, the unemployment rate is projected to decline only slightly to 7.7 percent by the forecast horizon. Inflationary pressure remains weak over the medium term, with headline inflation anticipated at an average 1.9 percent. A balanced general government budget (in structural terms as well as in accordance to the \\\"Maastricht\\\" definition) will not be achieved by the structural consolidation scenario underlying the forecast (\u20ac 2 billion as from 2014 and a further \u20ac 1 billion from 2015 onwards).<\\\/p><p>AB  - After the slump in economic growth between late 2012 and the middle of 2013, the Austrian economy is expected to follow a moderate upward trend, with GDP growth averaging 1.8 percent p.a. over the period 2014-2018. Private consumption in particular will remain subdued, as private households seem inclined to further increase their savings. While the gradual pace of expansion will lead to more jobs (2014-2018 +0.8 percent p.a.), unemployment is unlikely to decline significantly, given the parallel increase in both domestic and foreign labour supply. From a peak of 7.9 percent (as defined by the public employment service) in 2015, the unemployment rate is projected to decline only slightly to 7.7 percent by the forecast horizon. Inflationary pressure remains weak over the medium term, with headline inflation anticipated at an average 1.9 percent. A balanced general government budget (in structural terms as well as in accordance to the \\\"Maastricht\\\" definition) will not be achieved by the structural consolidation scenario underlying the forecast (\u20ac 2 billion as from 2014 and a further \u20ac 1 billion from 2015 onwards).<\\\/p><p>KW  - Forecast Public finance Medium-term Austria<\\\/p><p>KW  - Forecast Public finance Medium-term Austria<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 19<\\\/p><p>SP  - 21<\\\/p><p>EP  - 34<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Bulletin<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Bulletin<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2018 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/118958\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Subdued Economic Growth, High Unemployment and Fiscal Consolidation Shaping the Economic Outlook. 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