{"id":115902,"date":"2024-01-22T19:48:57","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T18:48:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/115902\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T16:39:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:39:58","slug":"krise-der-europaeischen-waehrungsunion-daempft-weltweite-wachstumsdynamik-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2016-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/115902\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Area Crisis Dampens Global Growth. Medium-term Forecast of the World Economy Until 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-115902","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The forecast of the world economy until 2016 is based on a global econometric model (Oxford Model). The forecast rests on the assumption that the uncertainty with respect to the solution of the interest rate and debt crisis in the euro area will persist for some time. Therefore, the euro's exchange rate vis-\u00e0-vis the dollar is expected to weaken slightly (to $ 1.23) until 2016. In 2012, the oil price (Brent) will fall (to $ 95 per barrel) owing to the international economic slowdown. However, it will return to about $ 110 by 2016. Over the forecast period the prices of other commodities are expected to decline slightly (\u20131.9 percent per year), not least as a consequence of the appreciation of the dollar. Both in the USA and in Europe average interest rates during the forecast period will be at their lowest levels since more than 60 years.","onlinedate":"2012-01-17 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20120101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":441651,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wwa\/pubid\/43375","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"85","monthly_report_pages":"37-49","monthly_report_pages_sort":"37","issue":"1","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2012). <span>Krise der Europ\u00e4ischen W\u00e4hrungsunion d\u00e4mpft weltweite Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2016<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>85<\\\/em>(1), 37-49. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/43375\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/43375<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Krise der Europ\u00e4ischen W\u00e4hrungsunion d\u00e4mpft weltweite Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2016<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2012 Jan;85(1):37-49.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{326c42c1b9b4440c90187cdb683f61f3,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Krise der Europ{\\\\\\\"a}ischen W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsunion d{\\\\\\\"a}mpft weltweite Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2016\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Nach einer Konjunkturabschw{\\\\\\\"a}chung 2012 d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern wieder beschleunigen und zwischen 2011 und 2016 durchschnittlich 2,0\\\\% pro Jahr erreichen. In den USA wird das BIP kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftiger expandieren (+2,1\\\\%) als in der EU 27 (+1,7\\\\%) bzw. in Japan (+1,6\\\\% pro Jahr). Wegen der nur langsamen {\\\\\\\"U}berwindung der Finanzmarktkrise in vielen Euro-L{\\\\\\\"a}ndern wird das Wirtschaftswachstum im Euro-Raum nur 1,4\\\\% pro Jahr betragen. In den neuen EU-L{\\\\\\\"a}ndern wird die Produktion mehr als doppelt so rasch zunehmen (+3,2\\\\% pro Jahr). China und Indien werden weiterhin das h{\\\\\\\"o}chste Wirtschaftswachstum verzeichnen (+8,6\\\\% bzw. +8,4\\\\% pro Jahr). In den anderen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte das BIP bis 2016 um etwa 4\u00bd\\\\% pro Jahr zunehmen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan, Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose: Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2012\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"85\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"37--49\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Krise der Europ\u00e4ischen W\u00e4hrungsunion d\u00e4mpft weltweite Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2016<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose: Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2012\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2012\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Nach einer Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung 2012 d\u00fcrfte sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriel\u00e4ndern wieder beschleunigen und zwischen 2011 und 2016 durchschnittlich 2,0% pro Jahr erreichen. In den USA wird das BIP kr\u00e4ftiger expandieren (+2,1%) als in der EU 27 (+1,7%) bzw. in Japan (+1,6% pro Jahr). Wegen der nur langsamen \u00dcberwindung der Finanzmarktkrise in vielen Euro-L\u00e4ndern wird das Wirtschaftswachstum im Euro-Raum nur 1,4% pro Jahr betragen. In den neuen EU-L\u00e4ndern wird die Produktion mehr als doppelt so rasch zunehmen (+3,2% pro Jahr). China und Indien werden weiterhin das h\u00f6chste Wirtschaftswachstum verzeichnen (+8,6% bzw. +8,4% pro Jahr). In den anderen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl\u00e4ndern d\u00fcrfte das BIP bis 2016 um etwa 4\u00bd% pro Jahr zunehmen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Nach einer Konjunkturabschw\u00e4chung 2012 d\u00fcrfte sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriel\u00e4ndern wieder beschleunigen und zwischen 2011 und 2016 durchschnittlich 2,0% pro Jahr erreichen. In den USA wird das BIP kr\u00e4ftiger expandieren (+2,1%) als in der EU 27 (+1,7%) bzw. in Japan (+1,6% pro Jahr). Wegen der nur langsamen \u00dcberwindung der Finanzmarktkrise in vielen Euro-L\u00e4ndern wird das Wirtschaftswachstum im Euro-Raum nur 1,4% pro Jahr betragen. In den neuen EU-L\u00e4ndern wird die Produktion mehr als doppelt so rasch zunehmen (+3,2% pro Jahr). China und Indien werden weiterhin das h\u00f6chste Wirtschaftswachstum verzeichnen (+8,6% bzw. +8,4% pro Jahr). In den anderen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl\u00e4ndern d\u00fcrfte das BIP bis 2016 um etwa 4\u00bd% pro Jahr zunehmen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 85<\\\/p><p>SP  - 37<\\\/p><p>EP  - 49<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Euro Area Crisis Dampens Global Growth. 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