{"id":114838,"date":"2024-01-22T19:04:09","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T18:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/114838\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T04:25:15","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T03:25:15","slug":"kraeftige-erholung-der-weltwirtschaft-mittelfristige-prognose-bis-2015-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/114838\/","title":{"rendered":"Strong Increase of the Global Economy. Mid-range Forecast until 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-114838","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The forecast of global economic development up to 2015 was made using an econometric world model (Oxford Model). It is assumed that uncertainties as to how the interest and debt crises will be handled in the various euro countries will continue for quite some time. Accordingly, the euro-dollar exchange rate is expected to weaken slightly (to $ 1.20) until 2012 before it goes up again to $ 1.35. Once the euro crisis is overcome, the forces that depress the dollar exchange rate, especially the high US foreign debt and that country's currency conflict with China, should once again gain ground. The crude oil price is set to continue its excessive upward movement, with the Brent price going up from $ 78 per barrel in 2010 to $ 105 in 2015. The savings rate of US households should increase by about 2 percentage points by 2015, due to the devaluation of their financial and real estate assets and high unemployment.","onlinedate":"2011-01-20 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20110101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":340086,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"84","monthly_report_pages":"37-48","monthly_report_pages_sort":"37","issue":"1","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"
Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2011). Kr\u00e4ftige Erholung der Weltwirtschaft. Mittelfristige Prognose bis 2015<\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, 84<\\\/em>(1), 37-48. https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/41149<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"
Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. Kr\u00e4ftige Erholung der Weltwirtschaft. Mittelfristige Prognose bis 2015<\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2011 Jan;84(1):37-48.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"
@misc{7962e677cf1b4516bde27203f2836271,<\\\/div>
title = \\\"Kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftige Erholung der Weltwirtschaft. Mittelfristige Prognose bis 2015\\\",<\\\/div>
abstract = \\\"Nach der leichten Abschw{\\\\\\\"a}chung 2011 als Folge einer restriktiven Fiskalpolitik d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern ab 2012 wieder beschleunigen und im Durchschnitt 2009\\\/2015 2,4\\\\% pro Jahr betragen. Wie in den vergangenen 20 Jahren wird das Wachstum in den USA (+2,7\\\\% pro Jahr) h{\\\\\\\"o}her ausfallen als in der EU bzw. als in Japan (jeweils +1,9\\\\% pro Jahr). In den neuen EU-L{\\\\\\\"a}ndern wird die Wirtschaft mit +3,7\\\\% pro Jahr merklich rascher expandieren als im Durchschnitt der EU 27 (+2,2\\\\% pro Jahr). China und Indien werden weiterhin die h{\\\\\\\"o}chsten Zuwachsraten verzeichnen (+8,9\\\\% bzw. +8,6\\\\% pro Jahr). In den anderen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl{\\\\\\\"a}nder d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte das BIP bis 2015 um etwa 5\\\\% pro Jahr zunehmen.\\\",<\\\/div>
keywords = \\\"Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan, Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan\\\",<\\\/div>
author = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div>
note = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div>
year = \\\"2011\\\",<\\\/div>
month = jan,<\\\/div>
language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div>
volume = \\\"84\\\",<\\\/div>
pages = \\\"37--48\\\",<\\\/div>
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T1 - Kr\u00e4ftige Erholung der Weltwirtschaft. Mittelfristige Prognose bis 2015<\\\/p>

AU - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p>

N1 - Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p>

PY - 2011\\\/1<\\\/p>

Y1 - 2011\\\/1<\\\/p>

N2 - Nach der leichten Abschw\u00e4chung 2011 als Folge einer restriktiven Fiskalpolitik d\u00fcrfte sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriel\u00e4ndern ab 2012 wieder beschleunigen und im Durchschnitt 2009\\\/2015 2,4% pro Jahr betragen. Wie in den vergangenen 20 Jahren wird das Wachstum in den USA (+2,7% pro Jahr) h\u00f6her ausfallen als in der EU bzw. als in Japan (jeweils +1,9% pro Jahr). In den neuen EU-L\u00e4ndern wird die Wirtschaft mit +3,7% pro Jahr merklich rascher expandieren als im Durchschnitt der EU 27 (+2,2% pro Jahr). China und Indien werden weiterhin die h\u00f6chsten Zuwachsraten verzeichnen (+8,9% bzw. +8,6% pro Jahr). In den anderen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl\u00e4nder d\u00fcrfte das BIP bis 2015 um etwa 5% pro Jahr zunehmen.<\\\/p>

AB - Nach der leichten Abschw\u00e4chung 2011 als Folge einer restriktiven Fiskalpolitik d\u00fcrfte sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriel\u00e4ndern ab 2012 wieder beschleunigen und im Durchschnitt 2009\\\/2015 2,4% pro Jahr betragen. Wie in den vergangenen 20 Jahren wird das Wachstum in den USA (+2,7% pro Jahr) h\u00f6her ausfallen als in der EU bzw. als in Japan (jeweils +1,9% pro Jahr). In den neuen EU-L\u00e4ndern wird die Wirtschaft mit +3,7% pro Jahr merklich rascher expandieren als im Durchschnitt der EU 27 (+2,2% pro Jahr). China und Indien werden weiterhin die h\u00f6chsten Zuwachsraten verzeichnen (+8,9% bzw. +8,6% pro Jahr). In den anderen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl\u00e4nder d\u00fcrfte das BIP bis 2015 um etwa 5% pro Jahr zunehmen.<\\\/p>

KW - Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan<\\\/p>

KW - Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan<\\\/p>

M3 - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p>

VL - 84<\\\/p>

SP - 37<\\\/p>

EP - 48<\\\/p>

JO - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

JF - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

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