{"id":113360,"date":"2024-01-22T18:31:47","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T17:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/113360\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T04:12:30","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T03:12:30","slug":"langsame-belebung-der-weltweiten-wachstumsdynamik-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2014-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113360\/","title":{"rendered":"Slow Recovery of Global Growth. Medium Term Forecast of the World Economy Until 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-113360","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The forecast of global economic trends until 2014 is based on the following assumptions: in the advanced economies, monetary policy will remain expansionary also in the medium term, albeit not as strongly as in the most recent past. Key interest rates will remain at an average of 2.4 percent in the USA and about 1.5 percent in the euro area. From 2011 onwards, fiscal policy will be tightened \u2013 to a larger extent in the euro area than in the USA. Thus, for the average of the euro area countries the increase in public debt is expected to be reduced below the Maastricht limit of 3 percent of GDP, whereas in the USA it is likely to amount to 7 percent of GDP. Due to the devaluation of financial and real assets the savings ratio of US households will rise to 5.2 percent until 2014. As a result of the enormous US foreign debt, the dollar is expected to depreciate further: the forecast assumes that the euro exchange rate will rise to $ 1.63 by 2014. The weak dollar will favour a rise of the crude oil price. It is expected to reach $ 100 by the end of the forecast period.","onlinedate":"2010-01-18 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20100101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":335486,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"83","monthly_report_pages":"37-45","monthly_report_pages_sort":"37","issue":"1","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2010). <span>Langsame Belebung der weltweiten Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2014<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>83<\\\/em>(1), 37-45. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/38124\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/38124<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Langsame Belebung der weltweiten Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2014<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2010 Jan;83(1):37-45.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{46832c1f5baf4a398e69fc76f807ccaa,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Langsame Belebung der weltweiten Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2014\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Als Folge der Finanzmarktkrise und einer ab 2011 restriktiveren Wirtschaftspolitik d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte die Gesamtproduktion (BIP) der Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}nder erst ab 2012 entsprechend dem Trendwachstum zunehmen. Insgesamt wird die Wirtschaft in den Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern zwischen 2009 und 2014 um durchschnittlich 2,1\\\\% pro Jahr expandieren. Wie in den vergangenen 20 Jahren wird das Wachstum in den USA h{\\\\\\\"o}her ausfallen als in der EU und in Japan. In den neuen EU-L{\\\\\\\"a}ndern wird die Wirtschaft ann{\\\\\\\"a}hernd doppelt so rasch expandieren wie in der EU 15. Unter den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern werden China und Indien weiterhin das h{\\\\\\\"o}chste Wirtschaftswachstum realisieren (+9,1\\\\% bzw. +8,3\\\\% pro Jahr).\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2010\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"83\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"37--45\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Langsame Belebung der weltweiten Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2014<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2010\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2010\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Als Folge der Finanzmarktkrise und einer ab 2011 restriktiveren Wirtschaftspolitik d\u00fcrfte die Gesamtproduktion (BIP) der Industriel\u00e4nder erst ab 2012 entsprechend dem Trendwachstum zunehmen. Insgesamt wird die Wirtschaft in den Industriel\u00e4ndern zwischen 2009 und 2014 um durchschnittlich 2,1% pro Jahr expandieren. Wie in den vergangenen 20 Jahren wird das Wachstum in den USA h\u00f6her ausfallen als in der EU und in Japan. In den neuen EU-L\u00e4ndern wird die Wirtschaft ann\u00e4hernd doppelt so rasch expandieren wie in der EU 15. Unter den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl\u00e4ndern werden China und Indien weiterhin das h\u00f6chste Wirtschaftswachstum realisieren (+9,1% bzw. +8,3% pro Jahr).<\\\/p><p>AB  - Als Folge der Finanzmarktkrise und einer ab 2011 restriktiveren Wirtschaftspolitik d\u00fcrfte die Gesamtproduktion (BIP) der Industriel\u00e4nder erst ab 2012 entsprechend dem Trendwachstum zunehmen. Insgesamt wird die Wirtschaft in den Industriel\u00e4ndern zwischen 2009 und 2014 um durchschnittlich 2,1% pro Jahr expandieren. Wie in den vergangenen 20 Jahren wird das Wachstum in den USA h\u00f6her ausfallen als in der EU und in Japan. In den neuen EU-L\u00e4ndern wird die Wirtschaft ann\u00e4hernd doppelt so rasch expandieren wie in der EU 15. Unter den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenl\u00e4ndern werden China und Indien weiterhin das h\u00f6chste Wirtschaftswachstum realisieren (+9,1% bzw. +8,3% pro Jahr).<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weltwirtschaft USA EU Euro-Raum Asien China Japan<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 83<\\\/p><p>SP  - 37<\\\/p><p>EP  - 45<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Slow Recovery of Global Growth. 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