{"id":113128,"date":"2024-01-22T18:25:28","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T17:25:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/113128\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T04:10:35","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T03:10:35","slug":"technical-trading-and-trends-in-the-dollar-euro-exchange-rate","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-113128","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The study explores the pattern of exchange rate dynamics based on the dollar-euro rate. It documents the performance of technical trading systems in this market, and it analyses the impact of technical trading on exchange rate dynamics. The main results are as follows: First, exchange rates fluctuate around \"underlying\" short-term trends. Over an extended period of time, short-term trends last longer in one direction than in the other. The accumulation of these runs result in long-term appreciation or depreciation trends. Second, the 2,265 technical models based on daily data would have produced an average gross rate of return of 4.2 percent per year when trading the dollar-euro rate between 1999 and 2006. The 2,466 models based on 30-minutes data perfom worse than the daily models. However, those 25 models, which performed best over the most recent sub-period, would have produced over the subsequent period a gross return of 8.2 percent per year. Third, the aggregate transactions as well as open positions of technical models exert an excessive demand (supply) pressure on currency markets. When the models produce trading signals, they are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions, almost all of them are on the same side of the market, either long or short.","onlinedate":"2009-11-23 01:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20091101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"113","keywords":"[\"Exchange rate dynamics\",\"market efficiency\",\"speculation\",\"technical trading\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":334804,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"","journal":"","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[81966],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[10660],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_bookanthology rendering_apa rendering_bookanthology_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2009). <span><em>Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate<\\\/em><\\\/span>. WIFO. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/37582\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/37582<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_bookanthology rendering_vancouver rendering_bookanthology_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate<\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO; 2009.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_bookanthology rendering_bibtex rendering_bookanthology_bibtex\\\"><div>@book{fa312089185e44a5a72b95697d79c360,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The study explores the pattern of exchange rate dynamics based on the dollar-euro rate. It documents the performance of technical trading systems in this market, and it analyses the impact of technical trading on exchange rate dynamics. The main results are as follows: First, exchange rates fluctuate around {\\\"}underlying{\\\"} short-term trends. Over an extended period of time, short-term trends last longer in one direction than in the other. The accumulation of these runs result in long-term appreciation or depreciation trends. Second, the 2,265 technical models based on daily data would have produced an average gross rate of return of 4.2 percent per year when trading the dollar-euro rate between 1999 and 2006. The 2,466 models based on 30-minutes data perfom worse than the daily models. However, those 25 models, which performed best over the most recent sub-period, would have produced over the subsequent period a gross return of 8.2 percent per year. Third, the aggregate transactions as well as open positions of technical models exert an excessive demand (supply) pressure on currency markets. When the models produce trading signals, they are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions, almost all of them are on the same side of the market, either long or short.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Exchange rate dynamics, market efficiency, speculation, technical trading, Exchange rate dynamics, market efficiency, speculation, technical trading\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2009\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = nov,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_bookanthology rendering_ris rendering_bookanthology_ris\\\"><p>TY  - BOOK<\\\/p><p>T1  - Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2009\\\/11<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2009\\\/11<\\\/p><p>N2  - The study explores the pattern of exchange rate dynamics based on the dollar-euro rate. It documents the performance of technical trading systems in this market, and it analyses the impact of technical trading on exchange rate dynamics. The main results are as follows: First, exchange rates fluctuate around \\\"underlying\\\" short-term trends. Over an extended period of time, short-term trends last longer in one direction than in the other. The accumulation of these runs result in long-term appreciation or depreciation trends. Second, the 2,265 technical models based on daily data would have produced an average gross rate of return of 4.2 percent per year when trading the dollar-euro rate between 1999 and 2006. The 2,466 models based on 30-minutes data perfom worse than the daily models. However, those 25 models, which performed best over the most recent sub-period, would have produced over the subsequent period a gross return of 8.2 percent per year. Third, the aggregate transactions as well as open positions of technical models exert an excessive demand (supply) pressure on currency markets. When the models produce trading signals, they are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions, almost all of them are on the same side of the market, either long or short.<\\\/p><p>AB  - The study explores the pattern of exchange rate dynamics based on the dollar-euro rate. It documents the performance of technical trading systems in this market, and it analyses the impact of technical trading on exchange rate dynamics. The main results are as follows: First, exchange rates fluctuate around \\\"underlying\\\" short-term trends. Over an extended period of time, short-term trends last longer in one direction than in the other. The accumulation of these runs result in long-term appreciation or depreciation trends. Second, the 2,265 technical models based on daily data would have produced an average gross rate of return of 4.2 percent per year when trading the dollar-euro rate between 1999 and 2006. The 2,466 models based on 30-minutes data perfom worse than the daily models. However, those 25 models, which performed best over the most recent sub-period, would have produced over the subsequent period a gross return of 8.2 percent per year. Third, the aggregate transactions as well as open positions of technical models exert an excessive demand (supply) pressure on currency markets. When the models produce trading signals, they are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions, almost all of them are on the same side of the market, either long or short.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Exchange rate dynamics<\\\/p><p>KW  - market efficiency<\\\/p><p>KW  - speculation<\\\/p><p>KW  - technical trading<\\\/p><p>KW  - Exchange rate dynamics<\\\/p><p>KW  - market efficiency<\\\/p><p>KW  - speculation<\\\/p><p>KW  - technical trading<\\\/p><p>M3  - Study<\\\/p><p>BT  - Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T03:10:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/113128\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/113128\\\/\",\"name\":\"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-22T17:25:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-07T03:10:35+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/113128\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/113128\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/113128\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/WIFOat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/WIFOat\",\"https:\\\/\\\/linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/wifoat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/mission-und-strategie\\\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/organisation\\\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/aktuelles\\\/presse\\\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/kontakt\\\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\\\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2024-11-07T03:10:35+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/","name":"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-01-22T17:25:28+00:00","dateModified":"2024-11-07T03:10:35+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/113128\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/113128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/113128\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":334794,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/113128\/revisions\/334794"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/client\/10660"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/3841"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research_group\/3491"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/81966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}