{"id":111080,"date":"2024-01-22T17:05:28","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T16:05:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/111080\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:53:35","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:53:35","slug":"die-manisch-depressiven-preisschwankungen-auf-den-finanzmaerkten-wie-macht-das-die-unsichtbare-hand-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/111080\/","title":{"rendered":"Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market \u2013 How Does the \"Invisible Hand\" Do it?"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-111080","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Speculative markets such as those for stocks or currencies typically have an extremely short time horizon for transactions. Yet at the same time, stock prices and exchange rates go up or down in trend curves of several years (\"bull\" and \"bear\" markets). The paper takes the dollar\/euro exchange rate to study how short-term price movements accumulate to produce long-term trends. It found that speculative prices fluctuate around \"underlying trends\". The \"trending\" phenomenon repeats iself along a range of time scales. Long-term trends develop from the accumulation of price waves based on daily rates which continue longer in one direction than the other across several years. A succession of such trends produces a pattern typical for the long-term dynamism of speculative prices: they vary in irregular cycles across a factual balance range without inclining to converge towards that balance.","onlinedate":"2007-10-18 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20071001","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"22","keywords":"[\"Finanzm\u00e4rkte\",\"Handelstechniken\",\"Wechselkursdynamik\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":328469,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"305","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2007). <span>Die manisch-depressiven Preisschwankungen auf den Finanzm\u00e4rkten \u2013 wie macht das die \\\"unsichtbare Hand\\\"?<\\\/span> <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (305). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/30300\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/30300<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Die manisch-depressiven Preisschwankungen auf den Finanzm\u00e4rkten \u2013 wie macht das die \\\"unsichtbare Hand\\\"?<\\\/span><\\\/span> <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2007 Oct;(305).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{26915d41ef0745369a8ec88f51d1cf40,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Die manisch-depressiven Preisschwankungen auf den Finanzm{\\\\\\\"a}rkten \u2013 wie macht das die {\\\"}unsichtbare Hand{\\\"}?\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Der Zeithorizont von Transaktionen auf spekulativen M{\\\\\\\"a}rkten wie jenen f{\\\\\\\"u}r Aktien oder Devisen ist zumeist extrem kurz. Gleichzeitig entwickeln sich Aktien- und Wechselkurse in mehrj{\\\\\\\"a}hrigen Trends nach oben bzw. unten ({\\\"}bull and bear markets{\\\"}). Das Paper untersucht am Beispiel des Dollar-Euro-Wechselkurses, auf welche Weise sich kurzfristige Kursbewegungen zu l{\\\\\\\"a}ngerfristigen Trends akkumulieren. Demnach schwanken spekulative Preise um {\\\"}underlying trends{\\\"}. Das Ph{\\\\\\\"a}nomen des {\\\"}trending{\\\"} wiederholt sich auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen. L{\\\\\\\"a}ngerfristige Trends ergeben sich aus der Akkumulation von Kurssch{\\\\\\\"u}ben auf Basis von Tagesdaten, welche {\\\\\\\"u}ber mehrere Jahre in eine Richtung l{\\\\\\\"a}nger dauern als in die Gegenrichtung. Die Abfolge dieser Trends ergibt das typische Muster der langfristigen Dynamik spekulativer Preise: Sie schwanken in irregul{\\\\\\\"a}ren Zyklen um den Bereich des realwirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichts ohne eine Tendenz, zu diesem Gleichgewicht zu konvergieren.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Finanzm{\\\\\\\"a}rkte, Handelstechniken, Wechselkursdynamik, Finanzm{\\\\\\\"a}rkte, Handelstechniken, Wechselkursdynamik\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2007\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = oct,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Die manisch-depressiven Preisschwankungen auf den Finanzm\u00e4rkten \u2013 wie macht das die \\\"unsichtbare Hand\\\"?<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2007\\\/10<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2007\\\/10<\\\/p><p>N2  - Der Zeithorizont von Transaktionen auf spekulativen M\u00e4rkten wie jenen f\u00fcr Aktien oder Devisen ist zumeist extrem kurz. Gleichzeitig entwickeln sich Aktien- und Wechselkurse in mehrj\u00e4hrigen Trends nach oben bzw. unten (\\\"bull and bear markets\\\"). Das Paper untersucht am Beispiel des Dollar-Euro-Wechselkurses, auf welche Weise sich kurzfristige Kursbewegungen zu l\u00e4ngerfristigen Trends akkumulieren. Demnach schwanken spekulative Preise um \\\"underlying trends\\\". Das Ph\u00e4nomen des \\\"trending\\\" wiederholt sich auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen. L\u00e4ngerfristige Trends ergeben sich aus der Akkumulation von Kurssch\u00fcben auf Basis von Tagesdaten, welche \u00fcber mehrere Jahre in eine Richtung l\u00e4nger dauern als in die Gegenrichtung. Die Abfolge dieser Trends ergibt das typische Muster der langfristigen Dynamik spekulativer Preise: Sie schwanken in irregul\u00e4ren Zyklen um den Bereich des realwirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichts ohne eine Tendenz, zu diesem Gleichgewicht zu konvergieren.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Der Zeithorizont von Transaktionen auf spekulativen M\u00e4rkten wie jenen f\u00fcr Aktien oder Devisen ist zumeist extrem kurz. Gleichzeitig entwickeln sich Aktien- und Wechselkurse in mehrj\u00e4hrigen Trends nach oben bzw. unten (\\\"bull and bear markets\\\"). Das Paper untersucht am Beispiel des Dollar-Euro-Wechselkurses, auf welche Weise sich kurzfristige Kursbewegungen zu l\u00e4ngerfristigen Trends akkumulieren. Demnach schwanken spekulative Preise um \\\"underlying trends\\\". Das Ph\u00e4nomen des \\\"trending\\\" wiederholt sich auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen. L\u00e4ngerfristige Trends ergeben sich aus der Akkumulation von Kurssch\u00fcben auf Basis von Tagesdaten, welche \u00fcber mehrere Jahre in eine Richtung l\u00e4nger dauern als in die Gegenrichtung. Die Abfolge dieser Trends ergibt das typische Muster der langfristigen Dynamik spekulativer Preise: Sie schwanken in irregul\u00e4ren Zyklen um den Bereich des realwirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichts ohne eine Tendenz, zu diesem Gleichgewicht zu konvergieren.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Finanzm\u00e4rkte<\\\/p><p>KW  - Handelstechniken<\\\/p><p>KW  - Wechselkursdynamik<\\\/p><p>KW  - Finanzm\u00e4rkte<\\\/p><p>KW  - Handelstechniken<\\\/p><p>KW  - Wechselkursdynamik<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market \u2013 How Does the &quot;Invisible Hand&quot; Do it? - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/111080\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market \u2013 How Does the &quot;Invisible Hand&quot; Do it?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/111080\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T02:53:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/111080\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/111080\\\/\",\"name\":\"Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market \u2013 How Does the \\\"Invisible Hand\\\" Do it? 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