{"id":110844,"date":"2024-01-22T17:00:26","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T16:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/110844\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:51:55","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:51:55","slug":"aggregate-trading-behavior-of-technical-models-and-the-yen-dollar-exchange-rate","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110844\/","title":{"rendered":"Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\/Dollar Exchange Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-110844","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen\/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly at the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals they are either buying or selling; when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.","onlinedate":"2007-06-08 02:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20070601","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"23","keywords":"[\"Exchange rate\",\"Heterogeneous Agents\",\"Speculation\",\"Technical Trading\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":327764,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"294","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2007). <span>Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\\\/Dollar Exchange Rate<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (294). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/29278\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/29278<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\\\/Dollar Exchange Rate<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2007 Jun;(294).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{fc99c746456542aa8b1fb1ff6a80463b,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\\\/Dollar Exchange Rate\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen\\\/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly at the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals they are either buying or selling; when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Exchange rate, Heterogeneous Agents, Speculation, Technical Trading, Exchange rate, Heterogeneous Agents, Speculation, Technical Trading\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2007\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jun,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\\\/Dollar Exchange Rate<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2007\\\/6<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2007\\\/6<\\\/p><p>N2  - The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen\\\/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly at the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals they are either buying or selling; when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.<\\\/p><p>AB  - The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen\\\/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly at the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals they are either buying or selling; when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Exchange rate<\\\/p><p>KW  - Heterogeneous Agents<\\\/p><p>KW  - Speculation<\\\/p><p>KW  - Technical Trading<\\\/p><p>KW  - Exchange rate<\\\/p><p>KW  - Heterogeneous Agents<\\\/p><p>KW  - Speculation<\\\/p><p>KW  - Technical Trading<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\/Dollar Exchange Rate - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110844\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\/Dollar Exchange Rate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110844\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T02:51:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110844\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110844\\\/\",\"name\":\"Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen\\\/Dollar Exchange Rate - 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