{"id":110558,"date":"2024-01-22T16:52:02","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T15:52:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/110558\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:50:10","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:50:10","slug":"the-profitability-of-technical-stock-trading-has-moved-from-daily-to-intraday-data","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/","title":{"rendered":"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-110558","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&amp;P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2,580 widely used models is analysed. When based on daily data, the profitability of technical stock trading has steadily declined since 1960 and has become unprofitable over the 1990s. However, when based on 30-minutes data the same models produce an average gross return of 8.8 percent per year between 1983 and 2000. These results do not change substantially when trading is simulated over six subperiods. Those 25 models which performed best over the most recent subperiod produce a significantly higher gross return over the subsequent subperiod than do all models together. Over the out-of-sample period 2001\u20132006 the 2,580 models perform much worse than between 1983 and 2000. This result could be due to stock markets becoming more efficient or to stock price trends shifting from 30-minutes prices to prices of higher frequencies.","onlinedate":"2007-04-02 02:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20070301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"31","keywords":"[\"Technical trading\",\"momentum effect\",\"reversal effect\",\"stock price dynamics\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":327055,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"289","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T02:50:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110558\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110558\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-22T15:52:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-07T02:50:10+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110558\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110558\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/110558\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/WIFOat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/WIFOat\",\"https:\\\/\\\/linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/wifoat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/mission-und-strategie\\\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/organisation\\\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/aktuelles\\\/presse\\\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/kontakt\\\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\\\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2024-11-07T02:50:10+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/","name":"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-01-22T15:52:02+00:00","dateModified":"2024-11-07T02:50:10+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110558\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/110558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/110558\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":327047,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/110558\/revisions\/327047"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/3841"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research_group\/3491"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/44410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}