{"id":110479,"date":"2024-01-22T16:34:46","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T15:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/110479\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:42:59","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:42:59","slug":"weltwirtschaft-waechst-rascher-hohe-unsicherheit-ueber-erdoelpreis-und-wechselkurse-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2010-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110479\/","title":{"rendered":"Acceleration of Global Economic Growth, Uncertainty about Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rates Remains High. Medium-term Forecast of the World Economy until 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-110479","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The two biggest elements of uncertainty of a medium-term forecast of the world economy, concern exchange rates, particularly between the Euro and the dollar, as well as crude oil prices. The WIFO basic scenario makes the following assumptions: the Euro exchange rate versus the dollar will drop to $ 1,12 by 2007, rising to $ 1,24 again thereafter; the crude oil price (Brent) will stay at a level of roughly $ 62 per barrel until 2008, rising to $ 67 by 2010. Under these conditions world trade should grow by nearly 7 percent between 2005 and 2010, and world production by approximately 4\u00bd percent per year, considerably faster than between 2000 and 2005. Among the industrialised countries, the US economy will continue to achieve a higher growth (+3.1 percent) than EU 25 (+2.1 percent). Economic dynamics will be weakest in Japan (+1.5 percent), Germany (+1.3 percent) and Italy (+1.2 percent). Of the emerging market economies, China (+8.0 percent) and India (+7.1 percent) will continue to achieve the greatest dynamics. The OPEC countries, too, and Russia (+5.2 percent, respectively) should realise strong economic growth, promoted by high crude oil prices.","onlinedate":"2006-05-15 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20060501","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":324260,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"79","monthly_report_pages":"359-373","monthly_report_pages_sort":"359","issue":"5","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2006). <span>Weltwirtschaft w\u00e4chst rascher \u2013 hohe Unsicherheit \u00fcber Erd\u00f6lpreis und Wechselkurse. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2010<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>79<\\\/em>(5), 359-373. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/26540\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/26540<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Weltwirtschaft w\u00e4chst rascher \u2013 hohe Unsicherheit \u00fcber Erd\u00f6lpreis und Wechselkurse. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2010<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2006 May;79(5):359-373.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{3a7d22a0dd6a46139ee781ab9cc99185,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Weltwirtschaft w{\\\\\\\"a}chst rascher \u2013 hohe Unsicherheit {\\\\\\\"u}ber Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreis und Wechselkurse. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2010\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Mittelfristig d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte sich das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2005 und 2010 sollte das BIP insgesamt real um 4,4\\\\% pro Jahr expandieren. Die Dynamik wird in den Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern geringer sein als in den Entwicklungsl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern und hier am gr{\\\\\\\"o}{\\\\ss}ten in China (+8,0\\\\%) und Indien (+7,1\\\\%). Auch die OPEC-L{\\\\\\\"a}nder und Russland (jeweils +5,2\\\\%) werden dank anhaltend hoher Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise eine kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftige Expansion verzeichnen. In den USA d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte das BIP (+3,1\\\\%) weiterhin rascher expandieren als in der EU 25 (+2,1\\\\%) und in Japan (+1,5\\\\%). Die Prognose geht von einem leichten mittelfristigen Anstieg der Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise und einem ann{\\\\\\\"a}hernd konstanten Euro-Dollar-Wechselkurs aus. Eine weitere markante Verteuerung von Erd{\\\\\\\"o}l oder eine starke Aufwertung des Euro w{\\\\\\\"u}rde das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich d{\\\\\\\"a}mpfen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2006\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = may,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"79\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"359--373\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Weltwirtschaft w\u00e4chst rascher \u2013 hohe Unsicherheit \u00fcber Erd\u00f6lpreis und Wechselkurse. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2010<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2006\\\/5<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2006\\\/5<\\\/p><p>N2  - Mittelfristig d\u00fcrfte sich das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2005 und 2010 sollte das BIP insgesamt real um 4,4% pro Jahr expandieren. Die Dynamik wird in den Industriel\u00e4ndern geringer sein als in den Entwicklungsl\u00e4ndern und hier am gr\u00f6\u00dften in China (+8,0%) und Indien (+7,1%). Auch die OPEC-L\u00e4nder und Russland (jeweils +5,2%) werden dank anhaltend hoher Erd\u00f6lpreise eine kr\u00e4ftige Expansion verzeichnen. In den USA d\u00fcrfte das BIP (+3,1%) weiterhin rascher expandieren als in der EU 25 (+2,1%) und in Japan (+1,5%). Die Prognose geht von einem leichten mittelfristigen Anstieg der Erd\u00f6lpreise und einem ann\u00e4hernd konstanten Euro-Dollar-Wechselkurs aus. Eine weitere markante Verteuerung von Erd\u00f6l oder eine starke Aufwertung des Euro w\u00fcrde das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich d\u00e4mpfen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Mittelfristig d\u00fcrfte sich das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2005 und 2010 sollte das BIP insgesamt real um 4,4% pro Jahr expandieren. Die Dynamik wird in den Industriel\u00e4ndern geringer sein als in den Entwicklungsl\u00e4ndern und hier am gr\u00f6\u00dften in China (+8,0%) und Indien (+7,1%). Auch die OPEC-L\u00e4nder und Russland (jeweils +5,2%) werden dank anhaltend hoher Erd\u00f6lpreise eine kr\u00e4ftige Expansion verzeichnen. In den USA d\u00fcrfte das BIP (+3,1%) weiterhin rascher expandieren als in der EU 25 (+2,1%) und in Japan (+1,5%). Die Prognose geht von einem leichten mittelfristigen Anstieg der Erd\u00f6lpreise und einem ann\u00e4hernd konstanten Euro-Dollar-Wechselkurs aus. Eine weitere markante Verteuerung von Erd\u00f6l oder eine starke Aufwertung des Euro w\u00fcrde das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft merklich d\u00e4mpfen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 79<\\\/p><p>SP  - 359<\\\/p><p>EP  - 373<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Acceleration of Global Economic Growth, Uncertainty about Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rates Remains High. Medium-term Forecast of the World Economy until 2010 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110479\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Acceleration of Global Economic Growth, Uncertainty about Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rates Remains High. 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