{"id":110479,"date":"2024-01-22T16:34:46","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T15:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/110479\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:42:59","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:42:59","slug":"weltwirtschaft-waechst-rascher-hohe-unsicherheit-ueber-erdoelpreis-und-wechselkurse-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2010-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/110479\/","title":{"rendered":"Acceleration of Global Economic Growth, Uncertainty about Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rates Remains High. Medium-term Forecast of the World Economy until 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-110479","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The two biggest elements of uncertainty of a medium-term forecast of the world economy, concern exchange rates, particularly between the Euro and the dollar, as well as crude oil prices. The WIFO basic scenario makes the following assumptions: the Euro exchange rate versus the dollar will drop to $ 1,12 by 2007, rising to $ 1,24 again thereafter; the crude oil price (Brent) will stay at a level of roughly $ 62 per barrel until 2008, rising to $ 67 by 2010. Under these conditions world trade should grow by nearly 7 percent between 2005 and 2010, and world production by approximately 4\u00bd percent per year, considerably faster than between 2000 and 2005. Among the industrialised countries, the US economy will continue to achieve a higher growth (+3.1 percent) than EU 25 (+2.1 percent). Economic dynamics will be weakest in Japan (+1.5 percent), Germany (+1.3 percent) and Italy (+1.2 percent). Of the emerging market economies, China (+8.0 percent) and India (+7.1 percent) will continue to achieve the greatest dynamics. The OPEC countries, too, and Russia (+5.2 percent, respectively) should realise strong economic growth, promoted by high crude oil prices.","onlinedate":"2006-05-15 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20060501","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":324260,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"79","monthly_report_pages":"359-373","monthly_report_pages_sort":"359","issue":"5","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.8 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Acceleration of Global Economic Growth, Uncertainty about Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rates Remains High. 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