{"id":108344,"date":"2024-01-22T15:31:12","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T14:31:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/108344\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:26:49","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:26:49","slug":"cyclical-recovery-in-danger-of-stalling-economic-outlook-for-2004-and-2005-3","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/108344\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-108344","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Growth of real GDP is set to accelerate from 0.7 percent in 2003 to 1.5 percent this year. From the middle to the end of last year, the business climate in the cyclically sensitive manufacturing sector has steadily improved, although since the beginning of 2004 firms have turned more sceptical as to their short-term output expectations. WIFO therefore assumes that the recovery in industry will make only slow progress. While the expansionary forces are gaining ground in the world economy, they are only partly transmitted to the euro area because of the high euro exchange rate and the sluggishness of internal demand. In Austria, business activity will be sustained by domestic demand. Construction is booming in 2004, and in 2005 private consumption growth may rise above its long-term trend, for the first time in four years. Cuts in direct taxes will strengthen disposable incomes markedly. Against the background of a sizeable increase in labour supply, the small gains in the number of economically active will not prevent unemployment from rising further. On annual average 2005, the jobless figure will be close to 250,000.","onlinedate":"2004-05-04 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20040501","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":318705,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"9","monthly_report_pages":"43-53","monthly_report_pages_sort":"43","issue":"2","journal":"Austrian Economic Quarterly","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2004-05-04 12:00:00","types":[183747],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[4043],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4043,\"personName\":\"Markus Marterbauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Marterbauer, M.<\\\/span> (2004). <span>Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005<\\\/span>. <span><em>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>9<\\\/em>(2), 43-53. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/25029\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/25029<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Marterbauer M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/span>. 2004 May;9(2):43-53.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{64474bfc0d26422c8aef0a0456b7af6a,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Growth of real GDP is set to accelerate from 0.7 percent in 2003 to 1.5 percent this year. From the middle to the end of last year, the business climate in the cyclically sensitive manufacturing sector has steadily improved, although since the beginning of 2004 firms have turned more sceptical as to their short-term output expectations. WIFO therefore assumes that the recovery in industry will make only slow progress. While the expansionary forces are gaining ground in the world economy, they are only partly transmitted to the euro area because of the high euro exchange rate and the sluggishness of internal demand. In Austria, business activity will be sustained by domestic demand. Construction is booming in 2004, and in 2005 private consumption growth may rise above its long-term trend, for the first time in four years. Cuts in direct taxes will strengthen disposable incomes markedly. Against the background of a sizeable increase in labour supply, the small gains in the number of economically active will not prevent unemployment from rising further. On annual average 2005, the jobless figure will be close to 250,000.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"economic outlook; Austria \\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Markus Marterbauer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Economic Outlook\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2004\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = may,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"9\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"43--53\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"Austrian Economic Quarterly\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005<\\\/p><p>AU  - Marterbauer, Markus<\\\/p><p>N1  - Economic Outlook<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2004\\\/5<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2004\\\/5<\\\/p><p>N2  - Growth of real GDP is set to accelerate from 0.7 percent in 2003 to 1.5 percent this year. From the middle to the end of last year, the business climate in the cyclically sensitive manufacturing sector has steadily improved, although since the beginning of 2004 firms have turned more sceptical as to their short-term output expectations. WIFO therefore assumes that the recovery in industry will make only slow progress. While the expansionary forces are gaining ground in the world economy, they are only partly transmitted to the euro area because of the high euro exchange rate and the sluggishness of internal demand. In Austria, business activity will be sustained by domestic demand. Construction is booming in 2004, and in 2005 private consumption growth may rise above its long-term trend, for the first time in four years. Cuts in direct taxes will strengthen disposable incomes markedly. Against the background of a sizeable increase in labour supply, the small gains in the number of economically active will not prevent unemployment from rising further. On annual average 2005, the jobless figure will be close to 250,000.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Growth of real GDP is set to accelerate from 0.7 percent in 2003 to 1.5 percent this year. From the middle to the end of last year, the business climate in the cyclically sensitive manufacturing sector has steadily improved, although since the beginning of 2004 firms have turned more sceptical as to their short-term output expectations. WIFO therefore assumes that the recovery in industry will make only slow progress. While the expansionary forces are gaining ground in the world economy, they are only partly transmitted to the euro area because of the high euro exchange rate and the sluggishness of internal demand. In Austria, business activity will be sustained by domestic demand. Construction is booming in 2004, and in 2005 private consumption growth may rise above its long-term trend, for the first time in four years. Cuts in direct taxes will strengthen disposable incomes markedly. Against the background of a sizeable increase in labour supply, the small gains in the number of economically active will not prevent unemployment from rising further. On annual average 2005, the jobless figure will be close to 250,000.<\\\/p><p>KW  - economic outlook; Austria\\n<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 9<\\\/p><p>SP  - 43<\\\/p><p>EP  - 53<\\\/p><p>JO  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>JF  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. 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