{"id":108044,"date":"2024-01-22T15:24:18","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T14:24:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/108044\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T16:32:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:32:57","slug":"erholung-in-den-industrielaendern-kraeftige-wachstumsbeschleunigung-in-den-anderen-laendergruppen-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2008-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/108044\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Economy Set to Recover in the Industrialised Countries and Accelerate in the Other Country Groups. Medium-term Projections from 2003 to 2008"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-108044","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"With interest rates kept low and taxes strongly reduced, monetary and fiscal policies in the USA are expected to remain on an expansive course in 2004. This will strengthen the economic upswing but will also accentuate the disequilibria in the US economy: in 2004, both the budget deficit and the current account deficit are envisaged to increase to at least 5 percent of GDP. For this reason, the USA will pursue a slightly restrictive course after the 2004 election year. Interest rates will probably be raised to 3.0 percent in 2005, and measures to consolidate the budget should dampen final demand, reducing the rate of growth to 2.3 percent by 2006, although the economy should then take an upturn again, and to 3.0 percent in 2008. In the medium run, the USA will thus manage an economic growth of 2.9 percent p.a. for the period of 2003-2008.","onlinedate":"2004-02-13 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20040201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":441341,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wwa\/pubid\/24855","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"77","monthly_report_pages":"99-107","monthly_report_pages_sort":"99","issue":"2","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (2004). <span>Erholung in den Industriel\u00e4ndern, kr\u00e4ftige Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den anderen L\u00e4ndergruppen. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2008<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>77<\\\/em>(2), 99-107. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/24855\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/24855<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Erholung in den Industriel\u00e4ndern, kr\u00e4ftige Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den anderen L\u00e4ndergruppen. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2008<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2004 Feb;77(2):99-107.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{2fc1203f2edc4434af447e91bcca55a2,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Erholung in den Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern, kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftige Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den anderen L{\\\\\\\"a}ndergruppen. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2008\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft wird sich merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2003 und 2008 d{\\\\\\\"u}rften das Welt-BIP um durchschnittlich 4,0\\\\% pro Jahr und der Welthandel um 6,1\\\\% pro Jahr expandieren. Die h{\\\\\\\"o}chste Expansionsrate werden die Entwicklungsl{\\\\\\\"a}nder (ohne Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lproduzenten) erreichen (+5,6\\\\%) vor den fr{\\\\\\\"u}heren Planwirtschaften (+4,7\\\\%) und den erd{\\\\\\\"o}lexportierenden Entwicklungsl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern (+3,9\\\\%). Die Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}nder d{\\\\\\\"u}rften die Produktion mit +2,5\\\\% pro Jahr kaum st{\\\\\\\"a}rker steigern als zwischen 1997 und 2003. In den USA wird die Wirtschaft weiterhin rascher wachsen als in der erweiterten EU (+2,9\\\\% gegen{\\\\\\\"u}ber +2,3\\\\%). Innerhalb der EU 25 erreichen die Beitrittsl{\\\\\\\"a}nder die h{\\\\\\\"o}chste Dynamik (+3,5\\\\%), Deutschland bleibt Nachz{\\\\\\\"u}gler (+1,8\\\\%).\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose: Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2004\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = feb,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"77\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"99--107\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Erholung in den Industriel\u00e4ndern, kr\u00e4ftige Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den anderen L\u00e4ndergruppen. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2008<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose: Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2004\\\/2<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2004\\\/2<\\\/p><p>N2  - Das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft wird sich merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2003 und 2008 d\u00fcrften das Welt-BIP um durchschnittlich 4,0% pro Jahr und der Welthandel um 6,1% pro Jahr expandieren. Die h\u00f6chste Expansionsrate werden die Entwicklungsl\u00e4nder (ohne Erd\u00f6lproduzenten) erreichen (+5,6%) vor den fr\u00fcheren Planwirtschaften (+4,7%) und den erd\u00f6lexportierenden Entwicklungsl\u00e4ndern (+3,9%). Die Industriel\u00e4nder d\u00fcrften die Produktion mit +2,5% pro Jahr kaum st\u00e4rker steigern als zwischen 1997 und 2003. In den USA wird die Wirtschaft weiterhin rascher wachsen als in der erweiterten EU (+2,9% gegen\u00fcber +2,3%). Innerhalb der EU 25 erreichen die Beitrittsl\u00e4nder die h\u00f6chste Dynamik (+3,5%), Deutschland bleibt Nachz\u00fcgler (+1,8%).<\\\/p><p>AB  - Das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft wird sich merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2003 und 2008 d\u00fcrften das Welt-BIP um durchschnittlich 4,0% pro Jahr und der Welthandel um 6,1% pro Jahr expandieren. Die h\u00f6chste Expansionsrate werden die Entwicklungsl\u00e4nder (ohne Erd\u00f6lproduzenten) erreichen (+5,6%) vor den fr\u00fcheren Planwirtschaften (+4,7%) und den erd\u00f6lexportierenden Entwicklungsl\u00e4ndern (+3,9%). Die Industriel\u00e4nder d\u00fcrften die Produktion mit +2,5% pro Jahr kaum st\u00e4rker steigern als zwischen 1997 und 2003. In den USA wird die Wirtschaft weiterhin rascher wachsen als in der erweiterten EU (+2,9% gegen\u00fcber +2,3%). Innerhalb der EU 25 erreichen die Beitrittsl\u00e4nder die h\u00f6chste Dynamik (+3,5%), Deutschland bleibt Nachz\u00fcgler (+1,8%).<\\\/p><p>KW  - Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 77<\\\/p><p>SP  - 99<\\\/p><p>EP  - 107<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Economy Set to Recover in the Industrialised Countries and Accelerate in the Other Country Groups. Medium-term Projections from 2003 to 2008 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/108044\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Economy Set to Recover in the Industrialised Countries and Accelerate in the Other Country Groups. 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