{"id":107334,"date":"2024-01-22T15:10:08","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T14:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/107334\/"},"modified":"2024-11-18T13:40:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-18T12:40:06","slug":"business-cycle-upturn-not-in-sight-economic-outlook-for-2003-and-2004","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/107334\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-107334","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The Austrian economy is suffering from persistently weak overall demand. Thus, GDP will expand by only 0.7 percent this year; a tentative projection for 2004 suggests a growth rate of 1.2 percent. Merchandise export growth is currently losing momentum, because of sluggish activity in key trading partner countries and the (mostly indirect) effects of the depreciation of the dollar vis-\u00e0-vis the euro. For 2004, the international economic environment does not look significantly more favourable for a cyclical upturn to take hold. Low capacity utilisation and subdued sales expectations weigh on corporate investment plans. The investment-to-GDP ratio has fallen markedly since 2000, and manufacturing output may still not pick up this year. Private consumption is rising but slowly, as disposable incomes post only modest gains and the saving ratio is seen heading up. Only the construction sector shows clear signs of recovery after several years of adverse development. The extended period of slow growth, accompanied by a strong increase in labour supply, is leading to a further rise in unemployment. In 2004, the jobless rate will rise to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force or 4.4 percent according to Eurostat definitions. Negative cyclical effects will also show up in government households, with the general government deficit edging up to 1.2 percent of GDP. The strong euro exchange rate is dampening inflation; the projected headline inflation of 1.3 percent confirms that a high degree of price stability will be maintained.","onlinedate":"2003-08-07 02:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20030801","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":416698,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"8","monthly_report_pages":"71-83","monthly_report_pages_sort":"71","issue":"3","journal":"Austrian Economic Quarterly","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[183747],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[4043],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4043,\"personName\":\"Markus Marterbauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Marterbauer, M.<\\\/span> (2003). <span>Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004<\\\/span>. <span><em>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>8<\\\/em>(3), 71-83. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/24474\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/24474<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Marterbauer M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/span>. 2003 Aug;8(3):71-83.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{8151f67f463b4e00a7e7e4420daee328,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The Austrian economy is suffering from persistently weak overall demand. Thus, GDP will expand by only 0.7 percent this year; a tentative projection for 2004 suggests a growth rate of 1.2 percent. Merchandise export growth is currently losing momentum, because of sluggish activity in key trading partner countries and the (mostly indirect) effects of the depreciation of the dollar vis-{\\\\`a}-vis the euro. For 2004, the international economic environment does not look significantly more favourable for a cyclical upturn to take hold. Low capacity utilisation and subdued sales expectations weigh on corporate investment plans. The investment-to-GDP ratio has fallen markedly since 2000, and manufacturing output may still not pick up this year. Private consumption is rising but slowly, as disposable incomes post only modest gains and the saving ratio is seen heading up. Only the construction sector shows clear signs of recovery after several years of adverse development. The extended period of slow growth, accompanied by a strong increase in labour supply, is leading to a further rise in unemployment. In 2004, the jobless rate will rise to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force or 4.4 percent according to Eurostat definitions. Negative cyclical effects will also show up in government households, with the general government deficit edging up to 1.2 percent of GDP. The strong euro exchange rate is dampening inflation; the projected headline inflation of 1.3 percent confirms that a high degree of price stability will be maintained.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Economic Outlook; Austria\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Markus Marterbauer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Economic Outlook\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2003\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = aug,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"8\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"71--83\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"Austrian Economic Quarterly\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004<\\\/p><p>AU  - Marterbauer, Markus<\\\/p><p>N1  - Economic Outlook<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2003\\\/8<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2003\\\/8<\\\/p><p>N2  - The Austrian economy is suffering from persistently weak overall demand. Thus, GDP will expand by only 0.7 percent this year; a tentative projection for 2004 suggests a growth rate of 1.2 percent. Merchandise export growth is currently losing momentum, because of sluggish activity in key trading partner countries and the (mostly indirect) effects of the depreciation of the dollar vis-\u00e0-vis the euro. For 2004, the international economic environment does not look significantly more favourable for a cyclical upturn to take hold. Low capacity utilisation and subdued sales expectations weigh on corporate investment plans. The investment-to-GDP ratio has fallen markedly since 2000, and manufacturing output may still not pick up this year. Private consumption is rising but slowly, as disposable incomes post only modest gains and the saving ratio is seen heading up. Only the construction sector shows clear signs of recovery after several years of adverse development. The extended period of slow growth, accompanied by a strong increase in labour supply, is leading to a further rise in unemployment. In 2004, the jobless rate will rise to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force or 4.4 percent according to Eurostat definitions. Negative cyclical effects will also show up in government households, with the general government deficit edging up to 1.2 percent of GDP. The strong euro exchange rate is dampening inflation; the projected headline inflation of 1.3 percent confirms that a high degree of price stability will be maintained.<\\\/p><p>AB  - The Austrian economy is suffering from persistently weak overall demand. Thus, GDP will expand by only 0.7 percent this year; a tentative projection for 2004 suggests a growth rate of 1.2 percent. Merchandise export growth is currently losing momentum, because of sluggish activity in key trading partner countries and the (mostly indirect) effects of the depreciation of the dollar vis-\u00e0-vis the euro. For 2004, the international economic environment does not look significantly more favourable for a cyclical upturn to take hold. Low capacity utilisation and subdued sales expectations weigh on corporate investment plans. The investment-to-GDP ratio has fallen markedly since 2000, and manufacturing output may still not pick up this year. Private consumption is rising but slowly, as disposable incomes post only modest gains and the saving ratio is seen heading up. Only the construction sector shows clear signs of recovery after several years of adverse development. The extended period of slow growth, accompanied by a strong increase in labour supply, is leading to a further rise in unemployment. In 2004, the jobless rate will rise to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force or 4.4 percent according to Eurostat definitions. Negative cyclical effects will also show up in government households, with the general government deficit edging up to 1.2 percent of GDP. The strong euro exchange rate is dampening inflation; the projected headline inflation of 1.3 percent confirms that a high degree of price stability will be maintained.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Economic Outlook; Austria<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 8<\\\/p><p>SP  - 71<\\\/p><p>EP  - 83<\\\/p><p>JO  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>JF  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. 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