{"id":106956,"date":"2024-01-22T15:03:35","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T14:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/106956\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T16:28:54","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:28:54","slug":"evaluation-of-macro-economic-forecasts-for-austria-in-the-1980s-and-1990s","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/106956\/","title":{"rendered":"Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-106956","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper presents an evaluation of the forecasts of WIFO, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the OECD for the Austrian economy for three key macro-economic variables for the period 1983-1999. As to the projections of growth and inflation in terms of accuracy no significant differences have emerged between the three institutions, while the prospects for unemployment are more precisely assessed by the two domestic institutes. Compared with previous studies, forecasting errors exhibit a slight downward trend. The forecasts by WIFO, IHS and the OECD are largely unbiased and efficient, and \u2013 with the exception of the unemployment rate forecast by the OECD \u2013 clearly superior to \"na\u00efve\" forecasting strategies.","onlinedate":"2003-02-06 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20021201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":441105,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wwa\/pubid\/23471","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"7","monthly_report_pages":"191-206","monthly_report_pages_sort":"191","issue":"4","journal":"Austrian Economic Quarterly","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2003-02-06 12:00:00","types":[183747],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Baumgartner, J.<\\\/span> (2002). <span>Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s<\\\/span>. <span><em>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>7<\\\/em>(4), 191-206. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/23471\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/23471<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Baumgartner J<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/span>. 2002 Dec;7(4):191-206.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{4f253f13167a4c7a9d78ecae90a0eadd,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"This paper presents an evaluation of the forecasts of WIFO, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the OECD for the Austrian economy for three key macro-economic variables for the period 1983-1999. As to the projections of growth and inflation in terms of accuracy no significant differences have emerged between the three institutions, while the prospects for unemployment are more precisely assessed by the two domestic institutes. Compared with previous studies, forecasting errors exhibit a slight downward trend. The forecasts by WIFO, IHS and the OECD are largely unbiased and efficient, and \u2013 with the exception of the unemployment rate forecast by the OECD \u2013 clearly superior to {\\\"}na{\\\\\\\"i}ve{\\\"} forecasting strategies.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s, Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Josef Baumgartner\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Forecast Evaluation\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2002\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"7\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"191--206\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"Austrian Economic Quarterly\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s<\\\/p><p>AU  - Baumgartner, Josef<\\\/p><p>N1  - Forecast Evaluation<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2002\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2002\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - This paper presents an evaluation of the forecasts of WIFO, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the OECD for the Austrian economy for three key macro-economic variables for the period 1983-1999. As to the projections of growth and inflation in terms of accuracy no significant differences have emerged between the three institutions, while the prospects for unemployment are more precisely assessed by the two domestic institutes. Compared with previous studies, forecasting errors exhibit a slight downward trend. The forecasts by WIFO, IHS and the OECD are largely unbiased and efficient, and \u2013 with the exception of the unemployment rate forecast by the OECD \u2013 clearly superior to \\\"na\u00efve\\\" forecasting strategies.<\\\/p><p>AB  - This paper presents an evaluation of the forecasts of WIFO, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the OECD for the Austrian economy for three key macro-economic variables for the period 1983-1999. As to the projections of growth and inflation in terms of accuracy no significant differences have emerged between the three institutions, while the prospects for unemployment are more precisely assessed by the two domestic institutes. Compared with previous studies, forecasting errors exhibit a slight downward trend. 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