{"id":106752,"date":"2024-01-22T14:58:58","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T13:58:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/106752\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T16:28:30","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:28:30","slug":"cyclical-upturn-with-structural-problems-persisting-medium-term-projections-for-the-austrian-economy-until-2006-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/106752\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-106752","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The business cycle recovery is currently proceeding at a slow pace. The medium-term forecast for the Austrian economy expects, however, an acceleration in 2003 and 2004. The upswing is mainly driven by external forces stimulating exports and business investment in machinery and equipment. Growth of domestic demand, initially lagging behind, will lend increasing support to overall activity towards the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, due to the assumed slowdown of the international business cycle, a marked deceleration of GDP growth should be expected for 2005 and 2006. Over the period 2001-2006, the Austrian economy is projected to expand at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in real terms, slightly below the EU average. Employment will post sizeable gains as the recovery proceeds, whereas the decline in unemployment may be held back by the ample supply of foreign labour. Inflation is set to remain subdued. General government finances are likely to move to a small surplus that should not, however, be taken as offering scope for a tax cut. Budgetary policy ought to make structural reform its major focus of attention.","onlinedate":"2002-09-19 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20020901","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Medium-term projection; macro-economic development; Austria; Cyclical Upturn\",\"with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":441083,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wwa\/pubid\/22703","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"7","monthly_report_pages":"121-131","monthly_report_pages_sort":"121","issue":"3","journal":"Austrian Economic Quarterly","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2002-09-19 12:00:00","types":[183747],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530,3641,4043],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":4043,\"personName\":\"Markus Marterbauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Baumgartner, J.<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Marterbauer, M.<\\\/span> (2002). <span>Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006<\\\/span>. <span><em>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>7<\\\/em>(3), 121-131. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/22703\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/22703<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Baumgartner J<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span><span>, Marterbauer M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/span>. 2002 Sept;7(3):121-131.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{0e1b5d680a9e44f3a0025c0651d24107,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The business cycle recovery is currently proceeding at a slow pace. The medium-term forecast for the Austrian economy expects, however, an acceleration in 2003 and 2004. The upswing is mainly driven by external forces stimulating exports and business investment in machinery and equipment. Growth of domestic demand, initially lagging behind, will lend increasing support to overall activity towards the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, due to the assumed slowdown of the international business cycle, a marked deceleration of GDP growth should be expected for 2005 and 2006. Over the period 2001-2006, the Austrian economy is projected to expand at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in real terms, slightly below the EU average. Employment will post sizeable gains as the recovery proceeds, whereas the decline in unemployment may be held back by the ample supply of foreign labour. Inflation is set to remain subdued. General government finances are likely to move to a small surplus that should not, however, be taken as offering scope for a tax cut. Budgetary policy ought to make structural reform its major focus of attention.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Medium-term projection; macro-economic development; Austria; Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006, Medium-term projection; macro-economic development; Austria; Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Josef Baumgartner and Serguei Kaniovski and Markus Marterbauer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Medium-Term Projection: Austria\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2002\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"7\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"121--131\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"Austrian Economic Quarterly\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006<\\\/p><p>AU  - Baumgartner, Josef<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>AU  - Marterbauer, Markus<\\\/p><p>N1  - Medium-Term Projection: Austria<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2002\\\/9<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2002\\\/9<\\\/p><p>N2  - The business cycle recovery is currently proceeding at a slow pace. The medium-term forecast for the Austrian economy expects, however, an acceleration in 2003 and 2004. The upswing is mainly driven by external forces stimulating exports and business investment in machinery and equipment. Growth of domestic demand, initially lagging behind, will lend increasing support to overall activity towards the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, due to the assumed slowdown of the international business cycle, a marked deceleration of GDP growth should be expected for 2005 and 2006. Over the period 2001-2006, the Austrian economy is projected to expand at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in real terms, slightly below the EU average. Employment will post sizeable gains as the recovery proceeds, whereas the decline in unemployment may be held back by the ample supply of foreign labour. Inflation is set to remain subdued. General government finances are likely to move to a small surplus that should not, however, be taken as offering scope for a tax cut. Budgetary policy ought to make structural reform its major focus of attention.<\\\/p><p>AB  - The business cycle recovery is currently proceeding at a slow pace. The medium-term forecast for the Austrian economy expects, however, an acceleration in 2003 and 2004. The upswing is mainly driven by external forces stimulating exports and business investment in machinery and equipment. Growth of domestic demand, initially lagging behind, will lend increasing support to overall activity towards the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, due to the assumed slowdown of the international business cycle, a marked deceleration of GDP growth should be expected for 2005 and 2006. Over the period 2001-2006, the Austrian economy is projected to expand at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in real terms, slightly below the EU average. Employment will post sizeable gains as the recovery proceeds, whereas the decline in unemployment may be held back by the ample supply of foreign labour. Inflation is set to remain subdued. General government finances are likely to move to a small surplus that should not, however, be taken as offering scope for a tax cut. Budgetary policy ought to make structural reform its major focus of attention.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Medium-term projection; macro-economic development; Austria; Cyclical Upturn<\\\/p><p>KW  - with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006<\\\/p><p>KW  - Medium-term projection; macro-economic development; Austria; Cyclical Upturn<\\\/p><p>KW  - with Structural Problems Persisting. Medium-term Projections for the Austrian Economy until 2006<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 7<\\\/p><p>SP  - 121<\\\/p><p>EP  - 131<\\\/p><p>JO  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>JF  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cyclical Upturn, with Structural Problems Persisting. 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