{"id":105704,"date":"2024-01-22T14:27:52","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T13:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/105704\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T16:23:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:23:19","slug":"pronounced-cyclical-downturn-recovery-not-before-mid-2002-economic-outlook-for-2002-and-2003-3","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/105704\/","title":{"rendered":"Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-105704","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Real GDP in Austria expanded by no more than 1.1 percent in 2001, as a result of subdued domestic demand and a marked slackening of exports and equipment investment. Driven by a recovery in the USA and supported by low oil prices, activity may stage a strong rebound as from next spring. Under these assumptions, GDP may grow by 1.2 percent in 2002, accelerating to a rate of 2.8 percent in the following year. The sharp cyclical downturn is putting strain on the labour market and on public finances. Employment is set to decline in 2002, accompanied by a jump in unemployment. With automatic stabilisers operating, the general government balance will slip into a temporary deficit in 2002. Inflation should decelerate markedly under the impact of falling energy prices. The cyclical stabilisation programme adopted by the federal government, while unlikely to prevent unemployment from rising sharply in winter, is nevertheless providing incentives to raise the economy's growth potential over the longer term.","onlinedate":"2002-01-18 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20020101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Austria; Pronounced Cyclical Downturn\",\"Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003\",\"Short-term Forecast\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":440999,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wwa\/pubid\/21101","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"7","monthly_report_pages":"1-13","monthly_report_pages_sort":"1","issue":"1","journal":"Austrian Economic Quarterly","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2002-01-18 12:00:00","types":[183747],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[4043],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4043,\"personName\":\"Markus Marterbauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Marterbauer, M.<\\\/span> (2002). <span>Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003<\\\/span>. <span><em>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>7<\\\/em>(1), 1-13. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/21101\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/21101<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Marterbauer M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/span>. 2002 Jan;7(1):1-13.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{b02a122948f44a51be0cc076e4f375cf,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Real GDP in Austria expanded by no more than 1.1 percent in 2001, as a result of subdued domestic demand and a marked slackening of exports and equipment investment. Driven by a recovery in the USA and supported by low oil prices, activity may stage a strong rebound as from next spring. Under these assumptions, GDP may grow by 1.2 percent in 2002, accelerating to a rate of 2.8 percent in the following year. The sharp cyclical downturn is putting strain on the labour market and on public finances. Employment is set to decline in 2002, accompanied by a jump in unemployment. With automatic stabilisers operating, the general government balance will slip into a temporary deficit in 2002. Inflation should decelerate markedly under the impact of falling energy prices. The cyclical stabilisation programme adopted by the federal government, while unlikely to prevent unemployment from rising sharply in winter, is nevertheless providing incentives to raise the economy's growth potential over the longer term.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Austria; Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003, Short-term Forecast, Austria; Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003, Short-term Forecast\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Markus Marterbauer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Economic Outlook\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2002\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"7\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"1--13\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"Austrian Economic Quarterly\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003<\\\/p><p>AU  - Marterbauer, Markus<\\\/p><p>N1  - Economic Outlook<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2002\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2002\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Real GDP in Austria expanded by no more than 1.1 percent in 2001, as a result of subdued domestic demand and a marked slackening of exports and equipment investment. Driven by a recovery in the USA and supported by low oil prices, activity may stage a strong rebound as from next spring. Under these assumptions, GDP may grow by 1.2 percent in 2002, accelerating to a rate of 2.8 percent in the following year. The sharp cyclical downturn is putting strain on the labour market and on public finances. Employment is set to decline in 2002, accompanied by a jump in unemployment. With automatic stabilisers operating, the general government balance will slip into a temporary deficit in 2002. Inflation should decelerate markedly under the impact of falling energy prices. The cyclical stabilisation programme adopted by the federal government, while unlikely to prevent unemployment from rising sharply in winter, is nevertheless providing incentives to raise the economy's growth potential over the longer term.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Real GDP in Austria expanded by no more than 1.1 percent in 2001, as a result of subdued domestic demand and a marked slackening of exports and equipment investment. Driven by a recovery in the USA and supported by low oil prices, activity may stage a strong rebound as from next spring. Under these assumptions, GDP may grow by 1.2 percent in 2002, accelerating to a rate of 2.8 percent in the following year. The sharp cyclical downturn is putting strain on the labour market and on public finances. Employment is set to decline in 2002, accompanied by a jump in unemployment. With automatic stabilisers operating, the general government balance will slip into a temporary deficit in 2002. Inflation should decelerate markedly under the impact of falling energy prices. The cyclical stabilisation programme adopted by the federal government, while unlikely to prevent unemployment from rising sharply in winter, is nevertheless providing incentives to raise the economy's growth potential over the longer term.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Austria; Pronounced Cyclical Downturn<\\\/p><p>KW  - Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003<\\\/p><p>KW  - Short-term Forecast<\\\/p><p>KW  - Austria; Pronounced Cyclical Downturn<\\\/p><p>KW  - Recovery not Before Mid-2002. Economic Outlook for 2002 and 2003<\\\/p><p>KW  - Short-term Forecast<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 7<\\\/p><p>SP  - 1<\\\/p><p>EP  - 13<\\\/p><p>JO  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>JF  - Austrian Economic Quarterly<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronounced Cyclical Downturn, Recovery not Before Mid-2002. 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