{"id":105604,"date":"2024-01-22T14:26:15","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T13:26:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/105604\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:05:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:05:39","slug":"makrooekonomische-auswirkungen-der-eu-erweiterung-auf-alte-und-neue-mitglieder-3","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/105604\/","title":{"rendered":"Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-105604","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Recalculating the macroeconomic effects of EU enlargement based on a global model (\"Oxford Economic Forecasting\") has found that this step towards integration will produce a win-win situation for both sides (CEECs and EU). In view of the difference in importance between markets (the EU sells only 5 percent of its total exports to the CEEC 10, whereas two-thirds of the total CEEC 10 exports flow into the EU), and the dimensions of the two blocks (the CEEC 10 have a GDP of just 10 percent of that of the EU 15), the gains for the CEECs will be tenfold those of the EU in general. Hungary and Poland may be able to boost their real GDP by some 8 to 9 percent within ten years of enlargement, which translates into an additional annual economic growth of 1 percent. The Czech Republic is likely to profit at a slightly lower level (5 to 6 percent in additional real GDP within ten years). The EU can raise its real GDP by about 0.5 percent within six years (2005\u20132010), or slightly less than 0.1 percentage point per year. Countries which already have close trading ties with the CEECs (such as Austria, Germany and Italy) will win more than the EU average. In Austria, the (cumulated) real GDP can be pushed up by \u00be percentage point, or by 0.15 percent per year. For some EU countries, the cost of enlargement will exceed their benefits: this applies in particular to Spain, Portugal and Denmark. Considering that the three CEECs explicitly studied in the report (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary) make up about two-thirds of the absolute GDP of the CEEC 10, the calculated GDP effects in the case of EU enlargement by 10 CEECs can \u2013 as a rule of thumb \u2013 be raised by about a third in the east and west. But EU enlargement must not be seen as a \"job generation machine\". If enlargement of the single market should lead to productivity shocks and more intense competition, employment should be expected to slow down temporarily. The model was based on the underlying assumption that no transition rules will be adopted to restrict the free movement of labour. If such rules should be introduced (which is the case in Germany and Austria), the immigration surplus in the EU computed in this study would be correspondingly lower.","onlinedate":"2001-11-27 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20011101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Makro\u00f6konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder; Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":312958,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"74","monthly_report_pages":"655-666","monthly_report_pages_sort":"655","issue":"11","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2001-11-27 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3917],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3917,\"personName\":\"Fritz Breuss\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Breuss, F.<\\\/span> (2001). <span>Makro\u00f6konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>74<\\\/em>(11), 655-666. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/20937\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/20937<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Breuss F<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Makro\u00f6konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2001 Nov;74(11):655-666.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{5665cbb24df44cfba47cd1abaa87e112,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Makro{\\\\\\\"o}konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die Neuberechnung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung durch das WIFO ber{\\\\\\\"u}cksichtigt alle theoretisch m{\\\\\\\"o}glichen Integrationseffekte: Handelseffekte, Binnenmarkteffekte, Faktorwanderungseffekte und Kosten der Erweiterung bzw. Transfers f{\\\\\\\"u}r die MOEL. Demnach ist dieser Integrationsschritt eine {\\\"}Win-Win-Situation{\\\"}: Gemessen am realen BIP profitieren sowohl die MOEL als auch die EU, erstere allerdings rund zehnmal so viel wie die EU-L{\\\\\\\"a}nder. {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich, Deutschland und Italien gewinnen relativ am meisten, Spanien, Portugal oder D{\\\\\\\"a}nemark z{\\\\\\\"a}hlen hingegen eher zu den Verlierern.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Makro{\\\\\\\"o}konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder; Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members, Makro{\\\\\\\"o}konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder; Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Fritz Breuss\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Osterweiterung Makroeffekte\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2001\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = nov,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"74\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"655--666\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Makro\u00f6konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder<\\\/p><p>AU  - Breuss, Fritz<\\\/p><p>N1  - Osterweiterung Makroeffekte<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2001\\\/11<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2001\\\/11<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die Neuberechnung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung durch das WIFO ber\u00fccksichtigt alle theoretisch m\u00f6glichen Integrationseffekte: Handelseffekte, Binnenmarkteffekte, Faktorwanderungseffekte und Kosten der Erweiterung bzw. Transfers f\u00fcr die MOEL. Demnach ist dieser Integrationsschritt eine \\\"Win-Win-Situation\\\": Gemessen am realen BIP profitieren sowohl die MOEL als auch die EU, erstere allerdings rund zehnmal so viel wie die EU-L\u00e4nder. \u00d6sterreich, Deutschland und Italien gewinnen relativ am meisten, Spanien, Portugal oder D\u00e4nemark z\u00e4hlen hingegen eher zu den Verlierern.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die Neuberechnung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung durch das WIFO ber\u00fccksichtigt alle theoretisch m\u00f6glichen Integrationseffekte: Handelseffekte, Binnenmarkteffekte, Faktorwanderungseffekte und Kosten der Erweiterung bzw. Transfers f\u00fcr die MOEL. Demnach ist dieser Integrationsschritt eine \\\"Win-Win-Situation\\\": Gemessen am realen BIP profitieren sowohl die MOEL als auch die EU, erstere allerdings rund zehnmal so viel wie die EU-L\u00e4nder. \u00d6sterreich, Deutschland und Italien gewinnen relativ am meisten, Spanien, Portugal oder D\u00e4nemark z\u00e4hlen hingegen eher zu den Verlierern.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Makro\u00f6konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder; Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members<\\\/p><p>KW  - Makro\u00f6konomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder; Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 74<\\\/p><p>SP  - 655<\\\/p><p>EP  - 666<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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