{"id":105560,"date":"2024-01-22T14:25:33","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T13:25:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/105560\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:05:17","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:05:17","slug":"business-cycle-turnaround-not-yet-in-sight","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/105560\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-105560","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The dampening impact on exports and investment from the international business cycle slowdown is being exacerbated in Austria by a fall in construction output. As a result, the labour market situation has deteriorated significantly. The regular WIFO business surveys do not as yet give rise to hopes for an imminent business cycle turnaround. Industrial confidence has weakened further until November. Incoming orders, current activity and production expectations are all being seen less favourable by firms than in the previous months. The terrorist attacks have come as a shock to the world economy, and their consequences will further delay the recovery. Exports until last summer held up relatively well against the global downturn. Latest available data for July and August show a nominal advance by 4\u00bd percent year-on-year. A further weakening should, however, be expected for the fourth quarter, due to the 11 September events. Manufacturing net output in the second and third quarter was barely higher than a year ago. Still more unfavourable is the situation in the construction industry: in July and August, building and civil engineering output fell by an average 3 percent in value year-on-year, and by over 4 percent in volume. Particularly sharp was the fall by a nominal 10 percent in residential construction, while publicly-ordered construction also declined. The cyclical weakness has led to a significant deterioration on the labour market. The year-on-year gain in employment has narrowed to a meagre 3,000 or 0.1 percent by November. The rate of unemployment as measured by the labour exchange rose by 0.9 percentage points from the year-earlier level; the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 6.3 percent in November. The deceleration of inflation should be facilitated by weaker activity. Yet, in October, the rate of inflation remained unchanged at 2.6 percent, as the effect of lower energy prices was offset by price increases for food and various other items, such as the newly-introduced student fees in higher education.","onlinedate":"2001-12-20 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20011201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":312831,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"74","monthly_report_pages":"709","monthly_report_pages_sort":"709","issue":"12","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2001-12-20 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3893],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3893,\"personName\":\"Ewald Walterskirchen\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Walterskirchen, E.<\\\/span> (2001). <span>Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>74<\\\/em>(12), 709. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/20961\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/20961<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Walterskirchen E<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2001 Dec;74(12):709.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{fefe4f0edd8c48f887deea2b5d96716c,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The dampening impact on exports and investment from the international business cycle slowdown is being exacerbated in Austria by a fall in construction output. As a result, the labour market situation has deteriorated significantly. The regular WIFO business surveys do not as yet give rise to hopes for an imminent business cycle turnaround. Industrial confidence has weakened further until November. Incoming orders, current activity and production expectations are all being seen less favourable by firms than in the previous months. The terrorist attacks have come as a shock to the world economy, and their consequences will further delay the recovery. Exports until last summer held up relatively well against the global downturn. Latest available data for July and August show a nominal advance by 4\u00bd percent year-on-year. A further weakening should, however, be expected for the fourth quarter, due to the 11 September events. Manufacturing net output in the second and third quarter was barely higher than a year ago. Still more unfavourable is the situation in the construction industry: in July and August, building and civil engineering output fell by an average 3 percent in value year-on-year, and by over 4 percent in volume. Particularly sharp was the fall by a nominal 10 percent in residential construction, while publicly-ordered construction also declined. The cyclical weakness has led to a significant deterioration on the labour market. The year-on-year gain in employment has narrowed to a meagre 3,000 or 0.1 percent by November. The rate of unemployment as measured by the labour exchange rose by 0.9 percentage points from the year-earlier level; the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 6.3 percent in November. The deceleration of inflation should be facilitated by weaker activity. Yet, in October, the rate of inflation remained unchanged at 2.6 percent, as the effect of lower energy prices was offset by price increases for food and various other items, such as the newly-introduced student fees in higher education.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Ewald Walterskirchen\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Business Cycle Report\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2001\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"74\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"709\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight<\\\/p><p>AU  - Walterskirchen, Ewald<\\\/p><p>N1  - Business Cycle Report<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2001\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2001\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - The dampening impact on exports and investment from the international business cycle slowdown is being exacerbated in Austria by a fall in construction output. As a result, the labour market situation has deteriorated significantly. The regular WIFO business surveys do not as yet give rise to hopes for an imminent business cycle turnaround. Industrial confidence has weakened further until November. Incoming orders, current activity and production expectations are all being seen less favourable by firms than in the previous months. The terrorist attacks have come as a shock to the world economy, and their consequences will further delay the recovery. Exports until last summer held up relatively well against the global downturn. Latest available data for July and August show a nominal advance by 4\u00bd percent year-on-year. A further weakening should, however, be expected for the fourth quarter, due to the 11 September events. Manufacturing net output in the second and third quarter was barely higher than a year ago. Still more unfavourable is the situation in the construction industry: in July and August, building and civil engineering output fell by an average 3 percent in value year-on-year, and by over 4 percent in volume. Particularly sharp was the fall by a nominal 10 percent in residential construction, while publicly-ordered construction also declined. The cyclical weakness has led to a significant deterioration on the labour market. The year-on-year gain in employment has narrowed to a meagre 3,000 or 0.1 percent by November. The rate of unemployment as measured by the labour exchange rose by 0.9 percentage points from the year-earlier level; the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 6.3 percent in November. The deceleration of inflation should be facilitated by weaker activity. Yet, in October, the rate of inflation remained unchanged at 2.6 percent, as the effect of lower energy prices was offset by price increases for food and various other items, such as the newly-introduced student fees in higher education.<\\\/p><p>AB  - The dampening impact on exports and investment from the international business cycle slowdown is being exacerbated in Austria by a fall in construction output. As a result, the labour market situation has deteriorated significantly. The regular WIFO business surveys do not as yet give rise to hopes for an imminent business cycle turnaround. Industrial confidence has weakened further until November. Incoming orders, current activity and production expectations are all being seen less favourable by firms than in the previous months. The terrorist attacks have come as a shock to the world economy, and their consequences will further delay the recovery. Exports until last summer held up relatively well against the global downturn. Latest available data for July and August show a nominal advance by 4\u00bd percent year-on-year. A further weakening should, however, be expected for the fourth quarter, due to the 11 September events. Manufacturing net output in the second and third quarter was barely higher than a year ago. Still more unfavourable is the situation in the construction industry: in July and August, building and civil engineering output fell by an average 3 percent in value year-on-year, and by over 4 percent in volume. Particularly sharp was the fall by a nominal 10 percent in residential construction, while publicly-ordered construction also declined. The cyclical weakness has led to a significant deterioration on the labour market. The year-on-year gain in employment has narrowed to a meagre 3,000 or 0.1 percent by November. The rate of unemployment as measured by the labour exchange rose by 0.9 percentage points from the year-earlier level; the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 6.3 percent in November. The deceleration of inflation should be facilitated by weaker activity. Yet, in October, the rate of inflation remained unchanged at 2.6 percent, as the effect of lower energy prices was offset by price increases for food and various other items, such as the newly-introduced student fees in higher education.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>VL  - 74<\\\/p><p>SP  - 709<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/105560\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/105560\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T02:05:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/105560\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/105560\\\/\",\"name\":\"Business Cycle Turnaround Not Yet in Sight - 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