{"id":105340,"date":"2024-01-22T14:21:18","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T13:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/105340\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:03:38","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T02:03:38","slug":"arbeitsmarktperspektiven-und-pensionsfinanzierung-bis-2030","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/105340\/","title":{"rendered":"Labour Market Perspectives and Funding of Old-age Pensions until 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-105340","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"In Austria, the discussion of old-age pensions has so far been based on highly pessimistic demographic perspectives and the assumption of a static labour market situation. Whereas the demographic projections for the next 30 years prepared in the second half of the 1990s were starting out from a declining population, more recent projections made by Statistik Austria are assuming a population growth of 3.7 percent. Nevertheless, the ageing of the population will still produce a decline in the working-age population (15 to 64 years) by about 316,000 up to 2030, and in turn will cause a labour shortage, which will substantially accelerate as of the middle of the coming decade and which will make untenable the commonly held assumption that the labour force participation rate will remain unchanged. Such trends are of crucial importance not just for old-age pension systems but also for the labour market. In order to avoid putting a brake on economic growth by a shrinking labour force, it is necessary to take employment policy action which aims at boosting the participation and integration of older women and men in the labour market. Two scenarios have been developed to analyse the effect of labour market trends on the old-age pension systems and to assess the financial situation of the government pension funds for the dependently employed up to 2030. If the activity rate remains unchanged over the next three decades, this translates into a loss of 230,000 workers due to demographic effects. Accordingly, the pensioners-to-contributors ratio (i.e., the number of pensions per 1,000 employment relationships) would rise from 619 in 2000 to 864 in 2030. Whereas currently 85.8 percent of the expenditure for pensions are covered by revenues, this rate would decline to 60.1 percent by 2030 under this scenario of unchanged labour force participation. If we assume that the economic and employment growth rates of the past quarter century (+2.4 percent and +0.4 percent p.a., respectively) will continue into the future, then, based on the latest population projection, labour force participation would rise from 67.6 percent today to 79.9 percent in 2030, thus reaching a level already achieved in the Scandinavian countries today. Accordingly, the pensioners-to-contributors ratio should rise from 619 today to 716 pensions per 1,000 employment relationships in 2030. In their study, R\u00fcrup \u2013 Schr\u00f6ter (1997) arrived at 980, assuming only a minor rise in the activity rate. Further assuming an average per-capita rise in income of 2 percent in real terms, the contribution margin for pensions would decline to 78.2 percent in 2030. In this scenario, expenditure for pensions by the government funds for dependently employed, would, in terms of GDP, be 11.4 percent in 2030, compared to 8.6 percent of GDP in 2000. The discussion over reforming the pension system has so far focussed almost exclusively on changes in contributions and benefits. This paper concentrates on the labour market, viewing greater labour force participation not just as a major component for further economic growth but also as a crucial factor to stabilise the old-age pension system. Even though the shrinking numbers of working-age persons are expected to improve employment opportunities in the long term, boosting employment will be a critical challenge for economic policy both from a growth perspective and from the point of view of securing old-age pensions.","onlinedate":"2001-09-24 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20010901","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":312301,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"74","monthly_report_pages":"553-565","monthly_report_pages_sort":"553","issue":"9","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2001-09-24 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[3593,3698],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3593,\"personName\":\"Alois Guger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3698,\"personName\":\"Christine Mayrhuber\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Guger, A.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Mayrhuber, C.<\\\/span> (2001). <span>Arbeitsmarktperspektiven und Pensionsfinanzierung bis 2030<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>74<\\\/em>(9), 553-565. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/20575\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/20575<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Guger A<\\\/span><span>, Mayrhuber C<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Arbeitsmarktperspektiven und Pensionsfinanzierung bis 2030<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2001 Sept;74(9):553-565.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{11bea2b9fdbb4547a415b5d2a7156bed,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Arbeitsmarktperspektiven und Pensionsfinanzierung bis 2030\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit des {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen Pensionsversicherungssystems steht in einem engen Zusammenhang mit der k{\\\\\\\"u}nftigen Arbeitsmarktentwicklung. Der R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang der Zahl der Erwerbspersonen l{\\\\\\\"a}sst in den kommenden Jahrzehnten eine zunehmende {\\\\\\\"U}berschussnachfrage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt erwarten. Ein Anstieg der Besch{\\\\\\\"a}ftigung und der Pro-Kopf-Einkommen sind f{\\\\\\\"u}r ein umlagefinanziertes Pensionssystem \u2013 insbesondere aufgrund der bevorstehenden demographischen Verschiebung ({\\\"}alternde Gesellschaft{\\\"})\u2013 von zentraler Bedeutung. Eine Steigerung der Erwerbsquoten erm{\\\\\\\"o}glicht nicht nur weiterhin eine prosperierende Wirtschaft, sondern auch steigende Beitragseinnahmen in der Pensionsversicherung der Unselbst{\\\\\\\"a}ndigen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Pensionsversicherung, Erwerbsbeteiligung, Pensionssystem, {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich; Arbeitsmarktperspektiven und Pensionsfinanzierung bis 2030; Labour Market Perspectives and Funding of Old-age Pensions until 2030\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Alois Guger and Christine Mayrhuber\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Pensionsfinanzierung\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2001\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"74\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"553--565\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Arbeitsmarktperspektiven und Pensionsfinanzierung bis 2030<\\\/p><p>AU  - Guger, Alois<\\\/p><p>AU  - Mayrhuber, Christine<\\\/p><p>N1  - Pensionsfinanzierung<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2001\\\/9<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2001\\\/9<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit des \u00f6sterreichischen Pensionsversicherungssystems steht in einem engen Zusammenhang mit der k\u00fcnftigen Arbeitsmarktentwicklung. Der R\u00fcckgang der Zahl der Erwerbspersonen l\u00e4sst in den kommenden Jahrzehnten eine zunehmende \u00dcberschussnachfrage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt erwarten. Ein Anstieg der Besch\u00e4ftigung und der Pro-Kopf-Einkommen sind f\u00fcr ein umlagefinanziertes Pensionssystem \u2013 insbesondere aufgrund der bevorstehenden demographischen Verschiebung (\\\"alternde Gesellschaft\\\")\u2013 von zentraler Bedeutung. Eine Steigerung der Erwerbsquoten erm\u00f6glicht nicht nur weiterhin eine prosperierende Wirtschaft, sondern auch steigende Beitragseinnahmen in der Pensionsversicherung der Unselbst\u00e4ndigen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit des \u00f6sterreichischen Pensionsversicherungssystems steht in einem engen Zusammenhang mit der k\u00fcnftigen Arbeitsmarktentwicklung. Der R\u00fcckgang der Zahl der Erwerbspersonen l\u00e4sst in den kommenden Jahrzehnten eine zunehmende \u00dcberschussnachfrage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt erwarten. Ein Anstieg der Besch\u00e4ftigung und der Pro-Kopf-Einkommen sind f\u00fcr ein umlagefinanziertes Pensionssystem \u2013 insbesondere aufgrund der bevorstehenden demographischen Verschiebung (\\\"alternde Gesellschaft\\\")\u2013 von zentraler Bedeutung. Eine Steigerung der Erwerbsquoten erm\u00f6glicht nicht nur weiterhin eine prosperierende Wirtschaft, sondern auch steigende Beitragseinnahmen in der Pensionsversicherung der Unselbst\u00e4ndigen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Pensionsversicherung<\\\/p><p>KW  -  Erwerbsbeteiligung<\\\/p><p>KW  -  Pensionssystem<\\\/p><p>KW  -  \u00d6sterreich; Arbeitsmarktperspektiven und Pensionsfinanzierung bis 2030; Labour Market Perspectives and Funding of Old-age Pensions until 2030<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 74<\\\/p><p>SP  - 553<\\\/p><p>EP  - 565<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Labour Market Perspectives and Funding of Old-age Pensions until 2030 - 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