{"id":104052,"date":"2024-01-22T13:47:45","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T12:47:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/104052\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T02:58:57","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:58:57","slug":"daempfung-des-wachstums-der-weltwirtschaft-im-jahr-2001-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/104052\/","title":{"rendered":"World-wide Slow-down of Economic Growth in 2001"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-104052","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The world economy has been experiencing a boom in 2000. Demand and production have increased in real terms by about 5\u00bc percent in the USA, 3\u00bd percent in the European Union, and 2 percent even in Japan, where the economy had been stagnating for almost a decade. A relatively favourable monetary framework and a vigorous expansion of domestic demand have contributed to this development. Currently, however, a growing number of indicators are pointing to a slow-down of economic activity, the major contributing factor being the increase of crude oil prices with the related redistribution of purchasing power at the expense of the industrialised countries. The more restrictive orientation of monetary policy also has a dampening effect on economic growth. As for the USA, the majority of international observers are expecting a \"soft landing\" with growth rates of over 3 percent, although the risk of a downturn has clearly increased. In Europe, the cyclical upswing set in with a certain time lag in 1999-2000 after the slump in the wake of the Asian and Russian crises had been overcome. The high rate of economic growth had a very positive effect on public households and the labour market \u2013 with employment growing strongly in 2000 (+1.6 percent) and the rate of unemployment dropping to 8.5 percent. The beginning slow-down of economic growth at such an early point in time is considered to be a cause for concern. The most recent EU and OECD forecasts \u2013 with estimates of real economic growth in 2001 of around 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively \u2013 tend to be rather optimistic for the EU countries. Nevertheless, rising oil prices, which will lead to higher inflation \u2013 presumably over 2 percent in the EU in 2000 and 2001 \u2013 and a loss of purchasing power for private households, may result in a stronger dampening of demand. Moreover, monetary policy has reacted more quickly than in the past by increasing interest rates. However, given the fact that the phase of fiscal consolidation has been completed, a certain amount of economic stimulation is to be expected from European fiscal policy in 2001, above all through major tax cuts in Germany and France. Assuming that the upward movement of crude oil prices in the world markets is going to level off in the coming quarters, and provided that interest- and exchange-rate developments do not result in a significant deterioration of the monetary framework, the slow-down of growth in Europe in 2001 may turn out to be of a temporary nature.","onlinedate":"2000-12-15 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20001201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"D\u00e4mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001; World-wide Slow-down of Economic Growth in 2001\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":310818,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"73","monthly_report_pages":"719-726","monthly_report_pages_sort":"719","issue":"12","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2000-12-15 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[4043],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4043,\"personName\":\"Markus Marterbauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Marterbauer, M.<\\\/span> (2000). <span>D\u00e4mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>73<\\\/em>(12), 719-726. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/19562\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/19562<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Marterbauer M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>D\u00e4mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2000 Dec;73(12):719-726.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{e60a8d6094374f0b91b2e6235b12e98c,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"D{\\\\\\\"a}mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Das Jahr 2000 brachte in Nordamerika und der EU eine Hochkonjunktur mit kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftiger Produktions- und Besch{\\\\\\\"a}ftigungsausweitung, r{\\\\\\\"u}ckl{\\\\\\\"a}ufiger Arbeitslosigkeit und einer Verbesserung der Budgetsalden der {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlichen Haushalte. Nun kommen allerdings Faktoren zum Tragen, die die hohe Wachstumsdynamik d{\\\\\\\"a}mpfen: Der starke Anstieg der Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise beschleunigt {\\\\\\\"u}ber direkte und indirekte Kan{\\\\\\\"a}le den Preisauftrieb und entzieht den Konsumenten in den Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern Kaufkraft, die Zinspolitik wirkt zunehmend restriktiv. Somit muss f{\\\\\\\"u}r das Jahr 2001 mit einer Wachstumsdelle gerechnet werden, die sich allerdings als vor{\\\\\\\"u}bergehend erweisen d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte, wenn sich die Rahmenbedingungen auf den Rohstoffm{\\\\\\\"a}rkten verbessern und der geldpolitische Kurs nicht weiter versch{\\\\\\\"a}rft wird.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"D{\\\\\\\"a}mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001; World-wide Slow-down of Economic Growth in 2001, D{\\\\\\\"a}mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001; World-wide Slow-down of Economic Growth in 2001\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Markus Marterbauer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Weltkonjunktur\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2000\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"73\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"719--726\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - D\u00e4mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001<\\\/p><p>AU  - Marterbauer, Markus<\\\/p><p>N1  - Weltkonjunktur<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2000\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2000\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - Das Jahr 2000 brachte in Nordamerika und der EU eine Hochkonjunktur mit kr\u00e4ftiger Produktions- und Besch\u00e4ftigungsausweitung, r\u00fcckl\u00e4ufiger Arbeitslosigkeit und einer Verbesserung der Budgetsalden der \u00f6ffentlichen Haushalte. Nun kommen allerdings Faktoren zum Tragen, die die hohe Wachstumsdynamik d\u00e4mpfen: Der starke Anstieg der Erd\u00f6lpreise beschleunigt \u00fcber direkte und indirekte Kan\u00e4le den Preisauftrieb und entzieht den Konsumenten in den Industriel\u00e4ndern Kaufkraft, die Zinspolitik wirkt zunehmend restriktiv. Somit muss f\u00fcr das Jahr 2001 mit einer Wachstumsdelle gerechnet werden, die sich allerdings als vor\u00fcbergehend erweisen d\u00fcrfte, wenn sich die Rahmenbedingungen auf den Rohstoffm\u00e4rkten verbessern und der geldpolitische Kurs nicht weiter versch\u00e4rft wird.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Das Jahr 2000 brachte in Nordamerika und der EU eine Hochkonjunktur mit kr\u00e4ftiger Produktions- und Besch\u00e4ftigungsausweitung, r\u00fcckl\u00e4ufiger Arbeitslosigkeit und einer Verbesserung der Budgetsalden der \u00f6ffentlichen Haushalte. Nun kommen allerdings Faktoren zum Tragen, die die hohe Wachstumsdynamik d\u00e4mpfen: Der starke Anstieg der Erd\u00f6lpreise beschleunigt \u00fcber direkte und indirekte Kan\u00e4le den Preisauftrieb und entzieht den Konsumenten in den Industriel\u00e4ndern Kaufkraft, die Zinspolitik wirkt zunehmend restriktiv. Somit muss f\u00fcr das Jahr 2001 mit einer Wachstumsdelle gerechnet werden, die sich allerdings als vor\u00fcbergehend erweisen d\u00fcrfte, wenn sich die Rahmenbedingungen auf den Rohstoffm\u00e4rkten verbessern und der geldpolitische Kurs nicht weiter versch\u00e4rft wird.<\\\/p><p>KW  - D\u00e4mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001; World-wide Slow-down of Economic Growth in 2001<\\\/p><p>KW  - D\u00e4mpfung des Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2001; World-wide Slow-down of Economic Growth in 2001<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 73<\\\/p><p>SP  - 719<\\\/p><p>EP  - 726<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - 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