{"id":103966,"date":"2024-01-22T13:46:01","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T12:46:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/103966\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T02:58:23","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:58:23","slug":"auswirkungen-der-rohoelpreishausse-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/103966\/","title":{"rendered":"Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-103966","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Oil market speculation, the market power of OPEC, and the reaction patterns of non-OPEC suppliers can be identified as the essential factors affecting the development of oil prices. Acting in the manner of a monopolist, OPEC is trying to implement a revenue-maximising strategy, with due consideration given to the policy of its competitors. With a view to medium-term developments, the volume of reserves also has to be taken into account. Given the most recent price movements, the crude oil price for Brent (Austria) will average around 28.7 $ per barrel in 2000. On a medium-term basis, OPEC will presumably succeed in assessing the behaviour of its competitors correctly and, hence, adopt a monopolist strategy. This will probably result in a price level of between 25 $ and 30 $ per barrel, the decisive factor being the short-term minimum price level for investments in additional oil exploration by non-OPEC producers. According to the IEA, OPEC will reach a market share of 50 percent after 2010, with non-OPEC suppliers operating at their maximum production levels. Higher oil prices have a direct impact on the Austrian economy by pushing up the prices of other sources of energy. These price increases are due, on the one hand, to the reaction of world-market energy prices to the oil price and, on the other hand, to changing prices (in ATS) for imports into Austria. In 2000, ATS prices for Brent increased by approximately 83 percent. This development triggers price increases for oil products (fuel oil) of around 40 percent. The prices of coal and gas, up by 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, are less strongly affected. The impact on gas prices is likely to persist in the coming year, while coal may be \"decoupled\" from oil price developments. Electricity prices have even declined in 2000 in the wake of market liberalisation. Premium petrol and diesel prices increased by 18 percent and 23 percent, respectively. According to WIFO's current assessment, the direct effect of oil price increases in 2000 (given the weight of energy) in Austria on the consumer price index is about 1 percentage point. Well-founded statements on the macroeconomic effects of a high-oil-price scenario (40 $ per barrel at constant 1990 prices) can be derived from model simulations based on E3ME for 19 European regions. Across the 19 regions replicated in E3ME, a GDP effect of \u20132.5 percent and a reduction of employment by 4.1 percent can be observed in 2010. The overall effect of \u20132.1 percent against baseline for all regions compares with an effect of \u20131.6 percent for Austria. The drop in demand for energy is associated with substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2). If the expected reduction of emissions is related to the Kyoto targets of the individual countries in percent of 1990 emissions agreed upon within the framework of European \"burden sharing\", it appears that a substantial part of these reductions would occur automatically under a high-oil-price scenario.","onlinedate":"2001-01-19 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20010101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Auswirkungen der Roh\u00f6lpreishausse; Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":310646,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"74","monthly_report_pages":"41-49","monthly_report_pages_sort":"41","issue":"1","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2001-01-19 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3655],"collaboration":"","persons":[3675],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3675,\"personName\":\"Kurt Kratena\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Kratena, K.<\\\/span> (2001). <span>Auswirkungen der Roh\u00f6lpreishausse<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>74<\\\/em>(1), 41-49. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/19591\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/19591<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Kratena K<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Auswirkungen der Roh\u00f6lpreishausse<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2001 Jan;74(1):41-49.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{dff601d825f2418f9ec4ebeb51b38b98,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Auswirkungen der Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreishausse\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die kurzfristige Entwicklung der Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise wird von spekulativen Bewegungen auf den Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lm{\\\\\\\"a}rkten und dem Reaktionsmuster des Nicht-OPEC-Angebotes gepr{\\\\\\\"a}gt. Die OPEC versucht unter Ber{\\\\\\\"u}cksichtigung der Politik der Konkurrenten, eine erl{\\\\\\\"o}smaximierende Strategie analog zu einem Monopolisten umzusetzen. Der Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreisanstieg schlug sich im Jahr 2000 auf die Preise von Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lprodukten und Treibstoffen wie erwartet nieder, (noch) nicht reagiert haben der Kohle- und der Gaspreis. Gas d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte sich im Jahr 2001 noch verteuern, der Kohlepreis k{\\\\\\\"o}nnte sich {\\\"}entkoppelt{\\\"} haben. Gem{\\\\\\\"a}{\\\\ss} Modellsimulationen mit dem makro{\\\\\\\"o}konometrischen multisektoralen Modell der europ{\\\\\\\"a}ischen Volkswirtschaften E3ME sind die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kosten eines zehn Jahre lang permanent hohen Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreises (40 \\\\$ je Barrel zu Preisen von 1990) mit 2,5\\\\% des BIP gering. Die einzelnen Sektoren sind sehr unterschiedlich betroffen, gleichzeitig geht die Energienachfrage und damit die CO2-Emissionen massiv zur{\\\\\\\"u}ck.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Auswirkungen der Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreishausse; Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments, Auswirkungen der Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreishausse; Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Kurt Kratena\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Roh{\\\\\\\"o}lpreishausse\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2001\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"74\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"41--49\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Auswirkungen der Roh\u00f6lpreishausse<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kratena, Kurt<\\\/p><p>N1  - Roh\u00f6lpreishausse<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2001\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2001\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die kurzfristige Entwicklung der Erd\u00f6lpreise wird von spekulativen Bewegungen auf den Roh\u00f6lm\u00e4rkten und dem Reaktionsmuster des Nicht-OPEC-Angebotes gepr\u00e4gt. Die OPEC versucht unter Ber\u00fccksichtigung der Politik der Konkurrenten, eine erl\u00f6smaximierende Strategie analog zu einem Monopolisten umzusetzen. Der Roh\u00f6lpreisanstieg schlug sich im Jahr 2000 auf die Preise von Erd\u00f6lprodukten und Treibstoffen wie erwartet nieder, (noch) nicht reagiert haben der Kohle- und der Gaspreis. Gas d\u00fcrfte sich im Jahr 2001 noch verteuern, der Kohlepreis k\u00f6nnte sich \\\"entkoppelt\\\" haben. Gem\u00e4\u00df Modellsimulationen mit dem makro\u00f6konometrischen multisektoralen Modell der europ\u00e4ischen Volkswirtschaften E3ME sind die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kosten eines zehn Jahre lang permanent hohen Roh\u00f6lpreises (40 $ je Barrel zu Preisen von 1990) mit 2,5% des BIP gering. Die einzelnen Sektoren sind sehr unterschiedlich betroffen, gleichzeitig geht die Energienachfrage und damit die CO2-Emissionen massiv zur\u00fcck.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die kurzfristige Entwicklung der Erd\u00f6lpreise wird von spekulativen Bewegungen auf den Roh\u00f6lm\u00e4rkten und dem Reaktionsmuster des Nicht-OPEC-Angebotes gepr\u00e4gt. Die OPEC versucht unter Ber\u00fccksichtigung der Politik der Konkurrenten, eine erl\u00f6smaximierende Strategie analog zu einem Monopolisten umzusetzen. Der Roh\u00f6lpreisanstieg schlug sich im Jahr 2000 auf die Preise von Erd\u00f6lprodukten und Treibstoffen wie erwartet nieder, (noch) nicht reagiert haben der Kohle- und der Gaspreis. Gas d\u00fcrfte sich im Jahr 2001 noch verteuern, der Kohlepreis k\u00f6nnte sich \\\"entkoppelt\\\" haben. Gem\u00e4\u00df Modellsimulationen mit dem makro\u00f6konometrischen multisektoralen Modell der europ\u00e4ischen Volkswirtschaften E3ME sind die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kosten eines zehn Jahre lang permanent hohen Roh\u00f6lpreises (40 $ je Barrel zu Preisen von 1990) mit 2,5% des BIP gering. Die einzelnen Sektoren sind sehr unterschiedlich betroffen, gleichzeitig geht die Energienachfrage und damit die CO2-Emissionen massiv zur\u00fcck.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Auswirkungen der Roh\u00f6lpreishausse; Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments<\\\/p><p>KW  - Auswirkungen der Roh\u00f6lpreishausse; Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 74<\\\/p><p>SP  - 41<\\\/p><p>EP  - 49<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/103966\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/103966\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T01:58:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/103966\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/103966\\\/\",\"name\":\"Comments on the Most Recent Oil Price Developments - 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