{"id":102649,"date":"2024-01-22T13:15:45","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T12:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/102649\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T02:43:03","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T01:43:03","slug":"prognose-fuer-1990-und-1991-bestaendige-inlandskonjunktur-aber-hohes-auslandsrisiko","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/102649\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook For 1990 And 1991: Firm Domestic Growth, But High Foreign Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-102649","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The Gulf crisis has worsened the short-term outlook for the world economy and thus also for Austria. If spot prices for crude oil will not substantially exceed 30 $ per barrel the negative impact on growth, consumer prices and the current account are likely to be limited given the recent decline in the dollar exchange rate. However, there is a substantial risk that oil prices may go up much further and push the world economy into a recession like twice in the seventies. This would hold particularly in the case of supply shortages during a military conflict. Until early autumn the Austrian economy showed unabated strength and the growth forecast for the whole of 1990 remains unchanged at 4\u00bd percent. For 1991, the changed outlook for oil prices, the dollar and growth abroad call for a downward adjustment of the increase in GDP from 4 percent to 3\u00bd percent.","onlinedate":"1990-10-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19901001","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"But High Foreign Risk\",\"Prognose f\u00fcr 1990 und 1991. Best\u00e4ndige Inlandskonjunktur\",\"aber hohes Auslandsrisiko; Economic Outlook For 1990 And 1991: Firm Domestic Growth\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":306293,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"63","monthly_report_pages":"539-553","monthly_report_pages_sort":"539","issue":"10","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[],"persons_data":"[]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - 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