Weekly WIFO Economic Index

The Weekly WIFO Economic Index (WWWI) is a measure of the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly basis. It is based on weekly, monthly and quarterly indicators.

The index is scaled to the values of the rates of change in GDP compared with the corresponding quarter in the previous year: Therefore, a value of 2 percent in a given week means that an average growth of 2 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year would be expected if the conditions of that week continue for a whole quarter.

 

Methodological description

The Weekly WIFO Economic Index (WWWI) measures the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly basis. It is based on 14 weekly and 7 monthly indicators, and 1 quarterly indicator for the Austrian economy.

The weekly data currently comprises 14 time series such as truck mileage, electricity consumption, credit card transaction volume, unemployment, nitrogen dioxide emissions, payment transaction data (number and volume of bank transfers), Google data on mobility (retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, transit stations, workplaces), flight data on passenger and freight volume as well as data from the weekly evaluations of selected indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey). The monthly data includes sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest and hard indicators such as industrial production and labour market figures (employment and vacancies).

GDP is the only series based on a quarterly frequency in the model.

Financial data are not included in the construction of the WWWI, as the WWWI is intended to provide a measure of real economic activity, but not of financial conditions. The index is created using a dynamic factor model.
 

Publications

Sandra Bilek-Steindl, Julia Bock-Schappelwein, Christian Glocker, Serguei Kaniovski (WIFO), Sebastian Koch, Richard Sellner (IHS)
Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung (High-frequency Business Cycle Monitoring)
Monographs, October 2020, 75 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Finance
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Institute for Advanced Studies
Online since: 23.10.2020 0:00
 
In dieser Studie wird eine große Zahl hochfrequenter Indikatoren gesammelt und hinsichtlich ihres Informationsgehaltes im Hinblick auf die Aktivität der österreichischen Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Dies geschieht anhand von Kreuzkorrelationen dieser und anderer häufig verwendeter Indikatoren für verschiedene Referenzreihen, u. a. für das BIP, das verarbeitende Gewerbe, den Bausektor, Teile des Dienstleistungssektors, Investitionen, Konsum, Importe und Exporte. Auf Basis dieser Erkenntnisse werden dynamische Faktormodelle (DFM) für die Referenzreihen spezifiziert. Dies ermöglicht eine Echtzeiteinschätzung und eine Prognose des BIP sowohl durch einen direkten (wöchentlicher WIFO-Wirtschaftsindex – WWWI) als auch durch einen indirekten Ansatz (Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle – CDFM). Eine Auswahl an hochfrequenten Indikatoren ist auch über den IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor abrufbar.