WIFO-Monatsberichte (monthly reports)

The WIFO-Monatsberichte (monthly reports) contain research results and publications by WIFO staff on national and international economic developments based on sound economic analyses. Additionally, important key figures on the international and Austrian economic situation are published in the WIFO-Monatsberichte.

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Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Vienna University of Economics and Business)
Claudia Kemfert (German Institute for Economic Research)
Philipp Schmidt-Dengler (University of Vienna)
Jens Südekum (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf)
Andrea Weber (Central European University)

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Vasily Astrov (wiiw)
Weiterhin robustes Wachstum in den mittel- und südosteuropäischen Ländern, doch Höhepunkt scheint bereits überschritten (Robust Growth Continues in CESEE Countries, but Zenith Appears to Have Been Passed)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2018, 91(7), pp.485-494
Online since: 23.07.2018 0:00
 
Die jüngsten Statistiken deuten auf ein weiterhin robustes BIP-Wachstum in den meisten Ländern Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas (MOSOEL) hin. Der Konjunkturhöhepunkt scheint allerdings bereits überschritten zu sein. Einerseits lässt die Dynamik der privaten Konsumnachfrage leicht nach, andererseits dämpft die Konjunkturabkühlung im Euro-Raum die Exportentwicklung vieler MOSOEL. Die Investitionen steigen weiterhin kräftig, getrieben in erster Linie von EU-Transfers an die EU-MOEL und von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen in den Westbalkanländern. Ein Wachstumseinbruch ist heuer nur in Rumänien und der Türkei zu erwarten – Ländern, deren Wirtschaft sich bislang in einem Zustand der Überhitzung befand.
JEL-Codes:E20, E66, O52, O57, P24, P27
Keywords:Konjunkturprognose, Mittelosteuropa, Westbalkan, MOSOEL
Research group:Macroeconomics and Public Finance
Language:German

Robust Growth Continues in CESEE Countries, but Zenith Appears to Have Been Passed
Recent statistics point at continued robust GDP growth in most Central, Eastern and South Eastern European (CESEE) countries. Nevertheless, they appear to have passed the zenith of their growth. On the one side, private consumer demand is slightly less dynamic, on the other side the slowdown in the euro zone dampens exports of many CESEE countries. Investment continues to burgeon, chiefly driven by EU transfers to the EU-CEEs as well as foreign direct investment in the western Balkans. Growth is expected to hit a downturn only in Romania and Turkey – countries whose economy had previously overheated.

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