WIFO-Konjunkturtest July 2019

30.07.2019

Economic Climate Unchanged, but Continued Deterioration in Manufacturing Sectors

The results of July 2019 show a sideways movement in economic assessments for the economy as a whole. However, there are marked differences across the sectors: while the economic assessments of companies in the service sectors are increasing and economic assessments in the construction industry – despite declines – remain optimistic, economic assessments in the manufacturing sector are continuing to weaken.

The index of current assessments for the economy as a whole rose by 0.4 points in July (excluding seasonal fluctuations) to a value of 12.1 points, thus remaining at a confident level. In the service sectors, the index gains 3.7 points and signals a good service economy with 15.3 points. In the construction industry, on the other hand, the index loses ground (–5.0 points), but remains at an optimistic level with a value of 28.5 points. In the economically important manufacturing sector, the situation index continues to lose ground (–3.0 points) and is now only just in the positive range at 2.2 points.

The index of business expectations remains virtually unchanged (–0.1 points) and reaches a value of 8.1 points. In the construction industry, the expectation index gains 3.1 points and the index value remains in confident ranges at 12.3 points. In the service sectors, on the other hand, the expectation index declines slightly (–0.5 points), but with an index value of 12.5 points remains within the range of confident economic expectations. The expectation index also drops in the manufacturing sector (–0.4 points) and is negative for the first time since August 2016 at –0.2 points. Consequently, the heterogeneous economic expectations across the three sectors continue in July.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.


Publications

WIFO Business Cycle Survey, July 2019, 12 pages
Supported by: European Commission
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 30.07.2019 14:00
Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juli 2019 zeigen für die Gesamtwirtschaft eine Seitwärtsbewegung der Kon-junktureinschätzungen. Zwischen den Sektoren sind aber markante Unterschiede zu beobachten: Während sich die Konjunktureinschätzung der Unternehmen in den Dienstleistungsbranchen verbessert und in der Bauwirtschaft trotz eines Rückganges im optimistischen Bereich bleibt, geben sie in der Sachgütererzeugung weiter nach.
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Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial Economics, Innovation and International Competition
© AhmedElqsas/behance.net
© AhmedElqsas/behance.net