Tourism Analysis: Inflation Affects the Winter Season

20.12.2022

Demand Almost at Pre-crisis Level in Summer 2022

The current WIFO tourism analysis shows that demand has picked up significantly compared to the summer season of the previous year. With around 78 million overnight stays, the pre-crisis level of summer 2019 was almost reached (–1.4 percent). The outlook for winter 2022-23 is affected by high inflation, but cautious optimism seems appropriate – a good booking situation at the beginning of winter could reduce the overnight gap to the 2018-19 season to an estimated 5 percent.

The resurgence of summer tourism in Austria is mainly due to domestic demand: With 24.3 million overnight stays, a new record was reached in this segment (+4.4 percent compared to the 2019 season). International travellers also came to Austria in greater numbers again in the summer months of 2022 (+26.5 percent compared to the previous year), although demand was still somewhat more restrained than before the COVID 19 crisis (–3.8 percent compared to 2019). According to initial estimates by WIFO, revenues from overnight and day tourism in Austria in the summer of 2022 nominally amounted to just under 14.7 billion € – 0.8 percent more than in the 2019 season. Considering the strong inflation of the tourism basket of goods, this means a 14.7 percent lower revenue in price-adjusted terms than in the summer of 2019.

War-related distortions on the energy markets and the upsurge in inflation are also increasingly influencing the tourism industry, with price increases for "essential" products and services (e.g., food or household energy) having a particularly negative impact on tourists' holiday decisions and also massively increasing the price of tourism products. Recent surveys among domestic hotel businesses and private households in Austria and Germany revealed a mixed picture: according to these surveys, the turnover expectations of many businesses for this winter are barely above last year's revenues. Also, only 70 percent of the domestic respondents and about two-thirds of the German respondents stated that they definitely intend to travel this winter. The main reason for this reluctance is not the pandemic, but inflation. In addition, many guests want to save money on their holidays, especially on purchases and consumption in gastronomy, but also on accommodation. Destinations that have specialised in high-income groups of guests could thus come through the crisis better. This development will probably have a greater impact on turnover and value creation in the current winter season than the number of arrivals and overnight stays.

 

Publications

Tourismusanalyse: Sommernachfrage 2022 beinahe auf Vorkrisenniveau, gute Buchungslage zu Winterbeginn (Tourism Analysis: Summer Demand in 2022 almost at Pre-crisis Level, Promising Booking outlook for the Start of the Winter Season)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2022, (26), 8 pages
Online since: 20.12.2022 9:00
Erstmals seit Ausbruch der COVID-19-Pandemie konnten touristische Aktivitäten in der Sommersaison 2022 wieder uneingeschränkt stattfinden, sodass die Nachfrage im Vergleich zum Vorjahr deutlich anzog (Ankünfte +27,3%, Nächtigungen +17,2%). Mit 24 Mio. Ankünften und rund 78 Mio. Übernachtungen wurde schon fast wieder das Vorkrisenniveau des Sommers 2019 erreicht (Ankünfte –6,2%, Nächtigungen –1,4%). Die Aussichten für den Winter 2022/23 sind mit Teuerungswelle und Energieunsicherheiten wesentlich volatiler, jedoch vorsichtig optimistisch – eine gute Buchungslage zu Winterbeginn dürfte den Nächtigungsrückstand zur Saison 2018/19 auf schätzungsweise 5% reduzieren.
Please contact

Anna Burton, BSc, MSc

Research groups: Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis
© Alessio Soggetti/Unsplash
© Alessio Soggetti/Unsplash