Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation of Germany's Industry by 2045

Research question(s): How could different (technology) pathways to a near-climate neutral industry by 2045 look like? – What role does the use of electricity and hydrogen play in the different scenarios? – What are the challenges in individual sectors (e.g. basic chemicals)? – What are the priorities for the transformation until 2030? • Approach: "Forecast" is a bottom-up energy demand model that depicts the technology structure of industry and maps industrial energy consumption, emissions, and costs at the process level. Furthermore, technology areas such as electric motors, industrial furnaces, space heating and steam generation are modelled separately. • Main result(s): The four scenarios show alternative paths to almost CO₂-neutral industrial production by 2045 – at least 95 percent by 2045 compared to 1990. They include ambitious changes to the entire industrial production system and assume a profound transformation in many sectors and value chains. In order for the transition to CO₂-neutral industrial production by 2045 to succeed, the time horizon until 2030 is crucial. • Policy implication(s): The current German policy mix is not sufficient to achieve sufficient reductions in the medium term and, above all, does not provide sufficient incentives for the fundamental long-term transformation. A successful industrial transformation therefore requires an adjustment of the regulatory framework (CCfDs, EU-ETS minimum price paths, establishment of green lead markets, etc.).