Effects of the Second Lockdown in Austria

05.11.2020

Recent WIFO Research Brief on the Macroeconomic Development During the COVID-19 Crisis

The economy is expected to shrink by 7.7 percent in 2020, instead of 6.8 percent as forecast in October. 0.6 percentage points of this additional slump are attributable to the hotel and restaurant sector, the rest mainly to (voluntary) consumption cuts in other sectors. In 2021, GDP is expected to expand by only 2.8 percent instead of 4.4 percent according to the WIFO forecast of October.

The GDP contribution from hotels and restaurants, however, will increase by 0.3 percentage points. While tourism should benefit from the current tightening next year, there will be negative consequences for the economy as a whole.
 

Publications

WIFO Research Briefs, 2020, (17), 11 pages
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 05.11.2020 0:00
Die Wirtschaft dürfte 2020 um 7,7% schrumpfen statt um 6,8%, wie noch im Oktober prognostiziert. 0,6 Prozentpunkte dieses zusätzlichen Einbruchs sind auf den Bereich Beherbergung und Gastronomie zurückzuführen, der Rest vor allem auf (freiwilligen) Konsumverzicht in anderen Bereichen. 2021 dürfte das BIP um nur 2,8% expandieren statt um 4,4% laut WIFO-Prognose vom Oktober 2020. Der BIP-Beitrag aus dem Bereich Beherbergung und Gastronomie steigt hingegen um 0,3 Prozentpunkte. Während also der Tourismus von den aktuellen Verschärfungen im nächsten Jahr profitieren soll, ergeben sich gesamtwirtschaftlich negative Folgeeffekte.
Please contact

Josef Baumgartner

Research groups: Macroeconomics and European Economic Policy

Walter Hyll

Research groups: Labour Market, Income and Social Security

Professor Hans Pitlik

Research groups: Macroeconomics and European Economic Policy

Stefan Schiman, MSc

Research groups: Macroeconomics and European Economic Policy
© Mika Baumeister/Unsplash
© Mika Baumeister/Unsplash