For this purpose, a new, lean and very flexibly applicable input-output based model, was developed, which quantifies the short- to medium-term effects of changes in production and consumption with regard to value added and emissions. In order to determine the consequences as precisely as possible, 74 economic activities and households are distinguished.
The model results show not only the direct consequences, but also the consequences resulting from the interdependence of the economic cycle. The model analysis presented here is based on the medium-term forecast published by WIFO in April 2020, which predicts a decline in real gross value added by 5¼ percent in 2020. The sector-specific declines in production and expected changes in household consumption behaviour are the input parameters for the model.
According to the definition of the greenhouse gas inventory, a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in Austria of 7.1 percent is expected in 2020 compared to 2019.
This decline is due to the changed economic situation and the emission intensity of the respective economic activities. Factors that also influence emissions, such as ambient temperatures, changes in land use and forest growth, are excluded. In accordance with the conventions of the greenhouse gas inventory, international air traffic is also not included in the calculation. Uncertainty about the actual reduction in emissions exists not only because of the final actual distribution of the production effects, but also because of the behaviour of households throughout the year, especially with regard to their travel activities.
Further information is available at:
Eurostat, Im Jahr 2019 sind die CO2-Emissionen aus energetischer Nutzung in der EU gesunken, Pressemitteilung 78/2020 vom 6. Mai 2020.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Task Force on national Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2020, https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/ (abgerufen am 26. April 2020).
UNFCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), 2020, National Inventory Submissions 2020, https://unfccc.int/ghg-inventories-annex-i-parties/2020 (abgerufen am 6. Mai 2020).
Umweltbundesamt, Austria's Annual Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990 – 2018, Eigenverlag, Wien, 2020.
