Economic Forecasts Brighten Up

30.03.2021

WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of March 2021

Economic sentiment among Austrian companies improved significantly in March. At –3.2 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO Business Climate Index was only just in negative territory and improved significantly compared with the previous month. Although assessments of the current business situation were more positive, companies in sectors subject to severe regulatory restrictions remained sceptical. Companies' economic outlook brightened noticeably and was optimistic for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The index of current assessments for the overall economy rose by 8.3 points in March (excluding seasonal fluctuations), but at –8.3 points remains below the zero line separating negative from positive assessments. Despite the gains, there are still differences across sectors. In the service sectors, which were severely affected by the COVID-19 restrictive measures, the index improved (+5.0 points) but remained in very sceptical territory with a value of –19.2 points. In the construction industry, the situation index rose by 9.2 points and at 31.4 points is at an above-average level. In the manufacturing sector the situation index gained 6.2 points, but still remained in negative territory at –3.8 points.

The expectations of Austrian companies improved significantly compared to the previous month. The business expectations index gained 9.4 points in March and, at 1.9 points, is in positive territory for the first time since February 2020. In the construction industry, the expectations index gained 6.8 points and is noticeably more optimistic at 13.2 points. In the service sectors, the expectations index gained 10.8 points and is now –0.4 points above the zero line. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index also gained momentum (+7.9 points) and is now 1.8 points above the zero line. The majority of companies expects improvements in the business situation, which is marked by the COVID-19 crisis, in the coming months.

   

Publications

Konjunktureinschätzungen hellen sich auf. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom März 2021 (Economic Forecasts Brighten Up. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of March 2021)
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, 2021, (3), 12 pages
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Economic and Social Science Computing Center
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 30.03.2021 0:00
Die Stimmung der österreichischen Unternehmen verbesserte sich im März merklich. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex notierte mit –3,2 Punkten (saisonbereinigt) nur mehr knapp im negativen Bereich und stieg gegenüber dem Vormonat deutlich an. Die Einschätzungen zur aktuellen Geschäftslage fielen zwar positiver aus, Unternehmen in behördlich stark eingeschränkten Branchen blieben jedoch weiterhin skeptisch. Die Konjunkturaussichten der Unternehmen hellten sich merklich auf und waren erstmals seit Beginn der COVID-19-Pandemie optimistisch.
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Dr. Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial, Innovation and International Economics
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net