Economic Expectations Lose Momentum

31.08.2020

WIFO-Konjunkturtest August 2020

The economic assessments of Austrian companies remain sceptical despite further improvement in August. Although the WIFO business climate index (seasonally adjusted) rose by 4.3 points, it was still in negative territory at –10.7 points. While the assessments of the current situation continued to rise in August, the momentum of business expectations was clearly weakening.

The index of current assessments of the overall economic situation rose by 9.9 points to –12.7 points in August (excluding seasonal fluctuations) and has shown a significant improvement since May. The situation indices are improving across the sectors. In the service sectors, the index rose by 13.5 points to –12.4 points but remains in negative territory. In the construction industry, the situation index rose by 6.6 points, and at 10.7 points is clearly in positive territory. In the manufacturing sector, the situation index increased by 5.2 points, but is still clearly in negative territory at –20.4 points.

The expectations of Austrian companies across all sectors are somewhat weaker than in the previous month. The index of corporate expectations lost 1.2 points in August and remains in the sceptical range at –8.7 points. In the construction industry alone, the expectations index is above the zero line that separates negative from positive expectations: after a slight decrease of 0.1 points, the index is now at 2.4 points. In the service sectors, the expectations index loses 1.7 points and is below average at –8.0 points. The expectations index for the manufacturing sector also lost some of its momentum (–0.7 points), remaining negative at –13.2 points. The majority of companies expects a rather muted normalisation in the coming months.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.
 

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Konjunkturerwartungen verlieren an Dynamik. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom August 2020 (Economic Expectations Lose Momentum. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) August 2020)
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, 2020, (8), 13 pages
Supported by: European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 28.08.2020 14:00
Die Konjunktureinschätzungen der österreichischen Unternehmen bleiben trotz weiterer Verbesserung im August skeptisch. Zwar stieg der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex (saisonbereinigt) um 4,3 Punkte, er lag aber mit –10,7 Punkten im negativen Bereich. Während sich die Einschätzungen der aktuellen Lage im August weiter verbesserten, schwächte sich die Dynamik der unternehmerischen Erwartungen deutlich ab.
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Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial Economics, Innovation and International Competition
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net