Despite Improvement in the Manufacturing Sector, Economic Momentum is Flattening Out

29.10.2020

WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of October 2020

In October, the majority of Austrian companies' economic outlook remained sceptical. The WIFO economic climate index (+0.1 points) stayed in negative territory at –9.4 points. The assessments of the current situation and the dynamics of corporate expectations remained subdued. While the economic assessments were improving in the manufacturing sector, the service and construction sectors were losing economic momentum again.

The index of current assessments of the overall economic situation rises by 0.1 points to –9.1 points in October (excluding seasonal fluctuations). However, there are significant differences across the sectors. In the service sectors, the index fell by 2.2 points to –12.2 points and is still in negative territory. In the construction industry, the situation index decreased by 6.6 points. However, at 9.7 points, the index remains in positive territory. In the manufacturing sector, the situation index gained 7.5 points, but despite the increase it remains in the skeptical range at –10.2 points.

On balance, the expectations of Austrian companies across all sectors are unchanged from the previous month. The index of corporate expectations remained in the sceptical range in October at –9.6 points. In the construction sector alone, the expectations index is above the zero line separating negative from positive expectations: after a further gain of 0.8 points compared to the previous month, the index now stands at 7.0 points. In the service sectors, on the other hand, the expectations index has lost 2.0 points and now stands at –12.0 points in below-average area. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index is gaining some momentum (+2.8 points) but is still negative at –12.1 points. The majority of companies expects the economic development to be dampened by the COVID-19 crisis in the coming months.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.

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Trotz Verbesserung in der Sachgütererzeugung flacht Konjunkturdynamik ab. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2020 (Despite Improvement in the Manufacturing Sector, Economic Momentum is Flattening Out. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of October 2020)
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, 2020, (10), 12 pages
Supported by: European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 29.10.2020 14:00
Die Konjunktureinschätzungen der österreichischen Unternehmen blieben im Oktober mehrheitlich skeptisch. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex (+0,1 Punkte) lag mit –9,4 Punkten neuerlich im negativen Bereich. Insgesamt beurteilten die Unternehmen die aktuelle Lage und die Entwicklung der nächsten Monate (unternehmerische Erwartungen) nach wie vor verhalten. Während sich das Konjunkturklima in der Sachgütererzeugung etwas verbesserte, flachte die Dynamik in den Dienstleistungsbranchen und in der Bauwirtschaft wieder ab.
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Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial Economics, Innovation and International Competition
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net