WIFO Working Papers

Discussion papers by WIFO staff, consultants and guests – As of 2006 available online only – Free download

WIFO Working Papers are not peer reviewed and are not necessarily based on a coordinated position of WIFO. The authors were informed about the Guidelines for Good Scientific Practice of the Austrian Agency for Research Integrity (ÖAWI), in particular with regard to the documentation of all elements necessary for the replicability of the results.

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Christian Glocker, Philipp Wegmüller
Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data
WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (542), 41 pages
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since 2004, the model successfully anticipates the downturn of 2008-09 and responds in a timely manner to the recent sudden drop following the removal of the Swiss Franc lower bound. In a Markov-switching extension, we propose that our model could be used for Swiss recession dating. Our model does not indicate a regime-switch following the removal of the Swiss Franc lower bound.
JEL-Codes:C32, C53, E37
Keywords:Dynamic Factor Model, Nowcasting, Real-Time Data, Markov-Switching KP_Berichte_Analysen
Research group:Macroeconomics and Public Finance
Language:English