WIFO-Monatsberichte (monthly reports)

The WIFO-Monatsberichte (monthly reports) contain research results and publications by WIFO staff on national and international economic developments based on sound economic analyses. Additionally, important key figures on the international and Austrian economic situation are published in the WIFO-Monatsberichte.

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Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Vienna University of Economics and Business)
Claudia Kemfert (German Institute for Economic Research)
Philipp Schmidt-Dengler (University of Vienna)
Jens Südekum (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf)
Andrea Weber (Central European University)

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Julia Grübler (wiiw)
MOSOEL: Wirtschaftliche Konvergenz getrübt durch politische Divergenz (CESEE: Economic Convergence Clouded by Political Uncertainty)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2017, 90(7), pp.547-554
Online since: 25.07.2017 0:00
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Die Wirtschaft der mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Länder (MOSOEL) befindet sich im Spannungsfeld zwischen dem Aufschwung einerseits und politischer Unsicherheit sowie geopolitischen Spannungen andererseits. Kurzfristig setzen sich die positiven Effekte der Erholung im Euro-Raum und der damit verbundenen Exportbelebung sowie der Stabilisierung der Rohölpreise auf niedrigem Niveau gegen mögliche negative Effekte politischer Turbulenzen durch. Gegenüber der wiiw-Frühjahrsprognose wurden die Wachstumsprognosen für die MOSOEL größtenteils nach oben auf 2,4% für 2017 und 2,6% für das Jahr 2018 korrigiert.
JEL-Codes:E66, O52, O57, P24, P27, P33, P52
Keywords:Konjunkturprognose, Ostmitteleuropa, Westbalkan, MOSOEL
Research group:Macroeconomics and Public Finance
Language:German
CESEE: Economic Convergence Clouded by Political Uncertainty
The international environment for the economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) presents itself as a stark contrast between economic upswing on the one hand and political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions on the other. In the short term, positive effects of the economic recovery in the euro area and related exports, as well as of the continuously low oil price are prevailing over potentially negative effects of political turmoil. Compared with the wiiw Spring Forecast, growth projections for the CESEE region were for the most part revised upwards to 2.4 and 2.6 percent for the years 2017 and 2018, respectively.
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