Die Finanzkrise in Südostasien erfordert eine drastische Revision der Prognosen für die betroffenen Länder, der Konjunkturaufschwung
in Japan ist wieder zum Stillstand gekommen. Die japanische Wirtschaft wird somit in den gesamten neunziger Jahren weitgehend
stagnieren. Hingegen dürften die Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft der USA und Europas relativ gering sein. Die Konjunktur war
in den USA 1997 noch sehr lebhaft und wird sich nun leicht abschwächen. In Europa greift der exportgetragene Aufschwung 1998
zunehmend auf die Inlandsnachfrage über. Das reale Wirtschaftswachstum wird sich auf 3% beschleunigen und so den Arbeitsmarkt
und die öffentlichen Haushalte entlasten.
Keywords:Wachstumsbeschleunigung in Europa von Krise in Asien kaum gebremst; Recovery in Europe Only Marginally Slowed Down by Crisis
in Asia
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
The world economy is being affected by very divergent forces: the sustained strong demand expansion in the U.S. and the acceleration
in economic growth in Europe tend to stimulate economic activity while the financial crisis in South-East Asia is spreading
to other countries of this region and is bringing to a halt the upturn in Japan. Various economic policy measures have helped
to prolong the economic upswing in the U.S. which started in 1991; real economic growth in 1997 is likely to reach almost
4 percent. The upturn has stimulated employment – the unemployment rate dropped below 5 percent – and reduced the public sector
deficits (in 1997, the shortfall will be no more than ¼ percent of GDP). The economic growth potential has increased markedly,
mainly as a result of high investment and the increase in labor supply. The rise in interest rates, the surge in the real
effective exchange rate of the dollar (+22 percent since April 1995) and the repercussions from the crisis in Asia are expected
to dampen economic growth to 2½ percent in 1998 and to 2 percent in 1999. In Europe, demand and output are forecast to expand
by 2½ percent in real terms. In most Scandinavian countries, in the U.K. and Ireland, in Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands,
the increase in exports has been accompanied by a strengthening of domestic demand. Along with discretionary labor market
policies, the acceleration in economic growth has brought about a decline in unemployment, albeit from a high level. In Germany,
France, and some smaller countries, however, the expansion in demand has so far been restricted almost entirely to exports.
Private consumption has been dampened by a restrictive fiscal policy and high unemployment; investment expenditures have suffered
from the weakness in aggregate demand and uncertainties regarding the future course of economic policy. In 1998, the increase
in economic activity will spread to domestic demand also in these countries, and growth is likely to accelerate to about 3
percent in the EU. The upswing is expected to continue into 1999 and gradually reduce unemployment as well as alleviate the
public sector's deficits. Thus, the transition to the Monetary Union should proceed smoothly. In view of the financial crisis
which started in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines and then spread to South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore,
and Taiwan, the forecasts for Asia will have to be revised downwards drastically. Important causes of the crisis were the
decline in competitiveness of many countries in South-East Asia and speculative bubbles which had formed in the asset markets.
The effects of the financial turmoil on the economy cannot yet be fully ascertained. Wealth losses and restrictive economic
policies will strongly dampen consumer and investment expenditures and place a heavy burden on the banking system. The Japanese
economy will suffer substantially from the financial crisis, as a result of the intensive trade and financial links to the
countries most affected (which purchase about one fifth of Japanese exports). The economic recovery, for which there were
clear signs at the beginning of 1997, will grind to a halt. The fragile situation of many financial institutions has become
apparent. The stagnation of the Japanese economy, which set in at the beginning of the 1990s, is expected to last to the end
of the decade: economic policy has very little leeway to turn the economy around. The repercussions of the crisis in South-East
Asia on the economies of the U.S. and of Europe, however, are likely to be small.