Alle Indikatoren deuten darauf hin, daß der Konjunkturaufschwung bereits begonnen hat. Von den USA ausgehend, hat sich das
Konjunkturklima in Europa verbessert. Auch in Österreich setzen sich die Auftriebskräfte zunehmend durch. Die österreichische
Wirtschaft wird heuer um 2% und 1995 um 3% wachsen. Die Konjunkturerholung stützt sich auf steigende Exporte, positive Wirkungen
der Steuerreform und die Verbesserung des Investitionsklimas im Zuge des zu erwartenden EU-Beitritts. Das Wirtschaftswachstum
wird den Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit stoppen. Gleichzeitig wird die Inflationsrate deutlich zurückgehen.
Keywords:Prognose für 1994 und 1995. Konjunkturaufschwung bei sinkender Inflation; The Outlook for 1994 and 1995: Economic Recovery
at Lower Inflation
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
The Outlook for 1994 and 1995: Economic Recovery at Lower Inflation
All economic indicators point to an incipient recovery. The business climate improved, first in the United States, then in
Western Europe. The Austrian economy also shows signs of buoyancy. For 1994 a growth rate of 2 percent, for 1995 a growth
rate of 3 percent is expected. The economic rebound is based on an increase in exports, the positive impact of the tax reform,
and the improvement in the investment climate as a result of Austria's expected accession to the EU. The acceleration in economic
growth will halt the rise in unemployment. At the same time the inflation rate will slow down markedly. In an international
comparison, the recession of 1993 in Austria was short and mild. Gross domestic product declined only marginally (–¼ percent),
but the negative impact of the slump on unemployment and the federal budget will remain a serious challenge to economic policy
making for years to come. The upswing in economic activity in the U.S. has brightened the economic climate in Europe. Positive
economic forces have also gained momentum in Austria. Exports, orders, and manufacturing output exceeded the level of 1992.
The greatest risk for a sustained economic recovery concerns the development in Germany. Grave economic problems and a rise
in tax burdens in the wake of Germany's reunification have shaken consumers' confidence. But there are also positive stimuli
from exports. In the end, much will depend on the German business sector's willingness to invest in the face of a shrinking
domestic market. The forecast by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research is based on the expectation that the fledgling
recovery will continue and will not suffer a setback (double-dip recession). The forecast for 1994 was, therefore, revised
upwards (+2 percent). A further acceleration to 3 percent is expected for 1995, provided Austria joins the EU. This optimistic
assessment is based on the current recovery of the world economy as well as economic policy measures: export gains and the
tax reform of 1994 are likely to be the mainstays of the economic upswing. Lively construction activity, an improvement in
business earnings, and export gains in overseas will reinforce the upturn. Austria's expected accession to the EU (by eliminating
the danger of discrimination) will strengthen investors' confidence. A failure to join the EU is likely to disappoint expectations
and dampen the investment climate markedly. Economic growth will suffice to stabilize the labor market. The loss of jobs in
manufacturing will continue, however. The rate of unemployment will remain unchanged; employment and the supply of labor will
expand. The development of prices will be watched very closely over the next year as Austria must make up ground in achieving
price stability. In 1994 and 1995 inflation should slow down markedly. The deceleration at the beginning of 1994 suggests
that the inflation forecast of 2.8 percent for 1994 can be maintained. A further significant deceleration to 2.2 percent is
likely in 1995 if Austria joins the EU. Lower food prices and increased competitive pressure on prices of manufactured goods
and insurance services will be the main factors slowing down inflation. Wage inflation, which usually responds to an upswing
with a lag of one year is likely to remain modest. Real disposable income will expand, however, as a result of an increase
in employment and the drop in the inflation rate. Private consumption will pick up slightly. The performance of the Austrian
economy will follow very closely that of other European economies, but will be significantly better than that of Germany,
which will labor under tax increases.