There are still no signs of a cyclical recovery in Austria. While surveys for February point to a slight pick-up in business confidence in Germany and Austria, the risks in the international economic and political environment weigh heavily on further developments. Global activity is being held back by the uncertainties surrounding a military conflict with Iraq and, with a view to such an event, the hefty increase in oil prices that have already occurred. In Europe, weak domestic demand, coupled with euro strength, constitutes an additional obstacle to an early upswing. Economic policy keeps refraining from taking substantial counter-action.