Das Budget ist 1993 und 1994 von der schwachen Konjunktur und der Steuerreform geprägt. Die automatischen Stabilisatoren stützten
die Nachfrage und verhinderten damit einen noch stärkeren Konjunktureinbruch, gleichzeitig erhöhten sie aber das Defizit merklich.
Die Steuerreform bringt ebenfalls zusätzliche Impulse für den privaten Konsum und die privaten Investitionen (durch die Abschaffung
der Gewerbesteuer und der Vermögensteuer). Der Bundeshaushalt läßt Strukturprobleme in der Finanzierung der Sozialausgaben
und in den finanziellen Beziehungen zu anderen Bereichen des öffentlichen Sektors erkennen. Sie könnten künftig die Budgetkonsolidierung
erschweren.
Keywords:Bundeshaushalt 1993 und 1994 durch Steuerreform und Konjunktureinbruch geprägt; Recession and Tax Reform Characterize Federal
Budgets 1993 and 1994
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Recession and Tax Reform Characterize Federal Budgets 1993 and 1994
In 1993 the federal government attempted to counter the effects of recession. As a result the preliminary net deficit has
risen to AS 98.2 billion, amounting to 4.7 percent of GDP. For 1994 a deficit of AS 80.7 billion (3.7 percent of GDP) is anticipated.
The government intends to resume its course of deficit reduction. In the budgets of 1993 and 1994 a number of structural problems
exist which will make consolidation difficult. In 1993 tax receipts fell significantly below expectations. For the first time
since the end of World War II federal net tax receipts (AS 339.1 billion) were lower (by –0.3 percent) than a year earlier.
At the same time fast rising unemployment required higher expenditures. As a result, the deficit at the end of the year was
50 percent higher than anticipated in the budget proposal (AS 98.2 billion, instead of AS 64.1 billion). More than two thirds
of this increase are due to the recession. The budget proposal for 1994 is marked by contradictory tendencies. On the one
hand, the federal government is attempting to reduce the net deficit and revert back to a course of consolidation; on the
other hand, the need to increase social expenditures (unemployment insurance, family-related expenditures) as a result of
the cyclical situation will hinder this attempt. In addition, the second stage of the tax reform 1994 will reduce tax receipts,
stabilizing the cyclical situation as well. The budgets of 1993 and 1994 contain a number of structural problems which will
make budget consolidation in the future difficult. In 1994 for the first time a number of welfare state expenditures (unemployment
insurance and family burden compensation fund) will have to be financed by loans, as tied receipts will no longer cover expenditures.
Also the new provision of caring for the disabled will require additional funds. In 1993 per capita civil service wages once
again increased faster (by 5.5 percent) than had been expected due to the official wage settlement of 3.95 percent. This additional
wage movement impedes future budget consolidation. While federal government investment expenditures had been sharply reduced
in previous years, contributing significantly to deficit reduction, they have been increased both in 1993 and 1994. These
increases act to stabilize the cyclical situation and simultaneously lay the groundwork for positive future growth.