Die hohen Zuwächse der Produktion von Vorleistungen und der Grundstoffindustrie greifen zunehmend auf Investitions- und Konsumgüter
über. Die rasche Festigung des Aufschwungs in Kontinentaleuropa entlastet die heimische Handelsbilanz, das Exportwachstum
übertraf im Sommer die Importsteigerungen merklich. Hohe Tourismusausgaben der Österreicher im Ausland und infolge gravierender
Strukturprobleme sinkende Nächtigungszahlen im Inland verschlechterten dagegen die Reiseverkehrsbilanz.
Keywords:Industriekonjunktur kommt in Schwung; Industrial Activity Gaining Strength
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Industrial Activity Gaining Strength
Strong output gains in manufacturing are gradually extending from basic and intermediate towards finished goods. With aggregate
demand in continental Europe rebounding, net exports have risen markedly since mid-year thereby preventing a further rise
in the trade deficit. However, the surplus in foreign tourism services declined as higher spending by Austrians abroad was
accompanied by a fall in foreign demand. The international business cycle recovery has so far proved rather stronger than
expected and is providing major stimulus to activity in Austria. Exports to North America and South East Asia are rising at
double-digit annual rates, those to eastern and western Europe are gaining momentum, with the exception of sales to Germany
which have recently slowed down. In all, merchandise exports rose by 7.4 percent year-on-year in July and by 4.7 percent in
August. With exports outpacing imports (July +4 and August +2.5 percent), the speedy recovery in Europe is benefiting the
Austrian trade balance, keeping the deficit slightly below the level a year ago. However, the net surplus in tourism services
continues to fall as exchange rate changes and cheap air fares encourage foreign travel by Austrians while at the same time
dampening foreign demand. Industrial activity strengthened further during the summer, with output in the first eight months
rising 4 percent over the level a year ago. Substantial gains are no longer confined to basic and intermediate goods but also
concern investment manufactures and consumer durables. Order figures suggest further advances over the coming months. Following
the boom early in the year, construction activity has returned to a more sustainable pace, with residential building remaining
the most buoyant component. Despite household disposable incomes being boosted by tax cuts, retail sales are picking up only
gradually as demand is held back by the expectation of price cuts in the context of accession to the European Union. Inflation
is receding slowly, with the CPI still rising at annual rates of above 3 percent in August and September. Rents and other
housing costs as well as service prices show the highest increases, cuts in regulated food prices are offset by seasonal hikes.
Prices of manufactures show no sign of decelerating, despite falling unit labor costs and stable import prices, as both the
pick-up in private demand and a low degree of competition in the retail sector favor a widening in profit margins. The labor
market is reacting relatively quickly to the recovery of demand and output. Despite substantial efforts being made to raise
productivity, employment in manufacturing has almost stopped falling and many service branches are hiring personnel. The seasonally
adjusted unemployment rate, according to national definitions, was 6.4 percent in October.