Der Konjunkturaufschwung hält in Österreich an. Aufgrund des kräftigen Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft nehmen die Exporte weiter
zu. Auch die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen dürften im Prognosezeitraum merklich gesteigert werden. Die kurzfristigen Konjunkturindikatoren
lassen jedoch eine Abschwächung im weiteren Jahresverlauf erwarten. Die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft wird durch den Anstieg
der Rohstoff- und Energiepreise, die restriktivere Geldpolitik in einigen Schwellenländern sowie die anhaltende Belastung
der privaten Haushalte in den USA gedämpft. Die Krise im Euro-Raum trägt zur Unsicherheit der Verbraucher und Unternehmen
bei. Für 2011 erwartet das WIFO einen Anstieg des österreichischen BIP um 3,0%; 2012 dürfte das Wirtschaftswachstum 1,8% betragen.
Die internationalen Risiken für die Konjunktur haben in den vergangenen Monaten zugenommen.
Keywords:Konjunkturprognose Österreich
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Strong Cyclical Upswing Losing Momentum. Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012
The business cycle upturn in Austria is set to continue. Lively global demand is driving up exports, and also investment in
machinery and equipment should post strong gains over the forecast period. Short-term indicators nevertheless point to some
slackening during the remainder of the year. The expansion of the world economy loses steam under the impact of higher raw
material and energy prices, a more restrictive stance of monetary policy in some emerging markets, and the continued burden
on private households in the USA. The crisis in the euro area is adding to uncertainty on the part of companies and consumers.
For the whole year 2011, WIFO expects GDP to grow by around 3.0 percent, followed by +1.8 percent in 2012. External cyclical
risks have increased over the last few months.
The business cycle upturn in Austria is set to continue. Lively global demand is driving up exports, and also investment in
machinery and equipment should post strong gains over the forecast period. Short–term indicators nevertheless point to some
slackening during the remainder of the year. The expansion of the world economy loses steam under the impact of higher raw
material and energy prices, a more restrictive stance of monetary policy in some emerging markets, and the continued burden
on private households in the USA. The crisis in the euro area is adding to uncertainty on the part of companies and consumers.
For the whole year 2011, WIFO expects GDP to grow by around 3.0 percent, followed by +1.8 percent in 2012. External cyclical
risks have increased over the last few months.
