Mittelfristiges Wachstum durch Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise gedrückt. Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2013 (Medium-term Growth Subdued by Effects of the Financial Crisis. Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2013)
Die Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanzkrise werden das Wirtschaftswachstum in Österreich mittelfristig dämpfen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt
wird von 2009 bis 2013 real um durchschnittlich nur 1,3% pro Jahr expandieren. Auf den Arbeitsmarkt und die öffentlichen Haushalte
wird sich diese Wachstumsverlangsamung ungünstig auswirken, die Inflationsrate wird dagegen niedrig bleiben. Nach Überwindung
der Krise werden Maßnahmen zur Konsolidierung der öffentlichen Haushalte erforderlich sein.
Keywords:Mittelfristige Prognose Österreich
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Medium-term Growth Subdued by Effects of the Financial Crisis. Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2013
At 1.3 percent per year the Austrian economy will expand only half as rapidly in 2009-2013 as in 2004-2008 (2.7 percent per
year). The current forecast period is characterised by very heterogeneous developments: during 2009 and 2010 the Austrian
economy will be fully hit by the international financial crisis. From 2010 onwards a recovery can be expected, if confidence
in the financial markets is restored by then. Even during the peak years of the cycle (2011-2013) GDP growth will not regain
its average of the five most recent years, because the world economy will only gradually overcome the consequences of the
housing and financial crisis and because the main trading partner Germany will suffer severely from the slump in the capital
goods and car industries. In addition, the growing uncertainty will make it difficult for private households to incur new
debt for housebuilding and consumption and due to the financial crisis businesses will face limited access to venture capital.
The global economic crisis will slow down Austria's economic growth over the medium term. Over the period from 2009 to 2013,
real GDP is expected to grow on average by 1.3 percent p.a. The cyclical downturn will have a negative impact on the labour
market and public finances, while keeping inflation low. Restoring the balance of public finances in the aftermath of the
crisis would require a determined effort by the government.
