Recovery in Industrialised Countries, Strong Acceleration of Growth in the Other Groups of Countries. Medium-term Projection
for the World Economy until 2008
The medium-term growth rate of the world economy is set to rise markedly. Between 2003 and 2008 world GDP is expected to expand
on average by 4.0 percent per year, and world trade to increase by 6.1 percent per year. The highest growth rate should be
achieved by the non-oil developing countries (+5.6 percent), followed by the former planned economies (+4.7 percent) and the
oil-exporting developing countries (+3.9 percent). With an output increase of 2.5 percent p.a. the industrialised countries
are projected to do only marginally better than during the period between 1997 and 2003. In the USA the economy will continue
to grow faster than in the enlarged EU (+2.9 percent as compared to +2.3 percent). Within the EU, the best economic performance
is expected by the accession countries (+3.5 percent), while Germany will continue to lag behind (+1.8 percent).
Keywords:medium-term forecast; economic policy in the USA and in the EU; overappreciation of the euro; Austria
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen – Industrie-, Innovations- und internationale Ökonomie