Günstige mittelfristige Wachstumsaussichten, aber anhaltende Budgetprobleme. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft für 2000 bis 2004 (Favourable Medium-term Growth Prospects but Sustained Budget Problems. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy 2000-2004)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2000, 73(1), S.41-46
Online seit: 20.01.2000 0:00
 
In der Periode 1999 bis 2004 wird das österreichische Bruttoinlandsprodukt real durchschnittlich um 2½% pro Jahr zunehmen. Das Wachstum fällt damit geringfügig schwächer aus als im EU-Durchschnitt, weil die zu erwartende Budgetkonsolidierung in Österreich leicht restriktiv wirkt. Infolge der Verwirklichung der dritten Stufe der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion sowie der kräftigen Konjunktur in Europa entwickeln sich vor allem die Exporte dynamisch. Die österreichische Exportquote (einschließlich Dienstleistungen) steigt auf gut 50%. Allerdings wird die Wachstumsdynamik allein nicht genügen, um die Budgetprobleme der öffentlichen Haushalte wesentlich zu verringern. Ohne zusätzliche Einschränkung der Ausgaben würde das Ziel des Stabilitätsprogramms einer Neuverschuldungsquote von 1,4% des BIP für das Jahr 2002 verfehlt. Die Beschäftigung steigt weiterhin kräftig. Da sich dieser Zuwachs jedoch auf Teilzeitarbeitsplätze konzentriert, geht die Arbeitslosigkeit nur wenig zurück. Das NAP-Ziel, die Arbeitslosenquote bis 2002 auf 3,5% zu senken, ist deshalb nur mit zusätzlichen arbeitsmarktpolitischen Maßnahmen zu erreichen.
Keywords:Mittelfristprognose Oesterreich
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch

Favourable Medium-term Growth Prospects but Sustained Budget Problems. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy 2000-2004
The improving economic environment in the European Union also has a positive impact on Austria. In the forecasting period of 1999 to 2004, its real GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 percent p.a. on average, slightly less than the European average. According to the international scenario for Austria, growth will accelerate and reach its peak in 2001. After weakening for the next two years, it should pick up again in 2004. Backed by the good competitive position, exports are expected to develop dynamically and to make increasing contributions to GDP growth. Expenditure for private consumption should continue to rise by about 2 percent p.a. Employment will continue to expand at a substantial pace, the consequence of good growth prospects as well as measures taken under the National Action Plan for Employment. Nevertheless, unemployment rates will decline only moderately. Increased competition and deregulation will keep prices low. The crude oil price is assumed to remain at its current high level. Wage increases will be modest only. Inflation will thus average just 1 percent p.a. The positive growth prospects will not suffice to solve the budget problems faced by the Austrian government. The fiscal reform (an increase in family allowances and income tax cuts) will place an additional burden on government finances in 2000. Projections assume a restrictive expenditure policy pursued by the government, resulting in a deficit of 1.6 percent of GDP in 2004. The objectives defined in the Austrian government's stability programme have thus been clearly missed, which calls for additional policy measures.

Verwandte Einträge

During the projection period of 1999–2004, the Austrian GDP is expected to average a growth of 2.5 percent p.a. in real terms. It will thus grow at a marginally lower rate than the EU average, as measures expected to be taken to consolidate the Austrian budget will act as a slight brake. Consequent to vigorous expansion in Europe, exports will develop dynamically. Austrian exports will rise to 50 percent of GDP. Employment continues its strong expansion. However, since growth is concentrated on part-time jobs, unemployment will decline only slightly. The NAP target of reducing the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent by 2002 can thus be met only by taking additional labour market policy measures. Dynamic growth prospects by itself will not suffice to make a major dent into the problems of public households.